Nvidia(US:NVDA)2025-10-10 02:49Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry in Greater China has been upgraded to an "Attractive" view for the second half of 2025, with a strong preference for AI-related semiconductors over non-AI counterparts [1][3] - The concerns regarding tariffs on semiconductors and foreign exchange impacts are now behind, leading to expectations of further re-rating for the sector [1][3] Core Investment Themes - Key investment themes for 2026 are being previewed, emphasizing the ongoing strength of AI semiconductors [1][3] - The report highlights the importance of AI in driving demand across various verticals beyond the semiconductor industry [5][6] Top Investment Picks - AI Semiconductors: TSMC (Top Pick), Aspeed, Alchip, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, ASMPT, AllRing - Memory Stocks: Winbond (Top Pick), GWC, Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix - Non-AI Stocks: Novatek, OmniVision, Realtek, NAURA Tech, AMEC, ACMR, Silergy, SG Micro, Yangjie, GlobalWafers [5][6] Market Dynamics - The recovery in the semiconductor market is expected to be gradual, with historical data indicating that a decline in semiconductor inventory days is a positive signal for stock price appreciation [5][6] - The introduction of DeepSeek technology is anticipated to trigger demand for AI inferencing, although there are concerns about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [5][6] Long-term Demand Drivers - The reacceleration of AI semiconductor demand is attributed to generative AI technologies, which are expected to proliferate across various sectors [5][6] - Price elasticity in technology products is anticipated to stimulate demand further [5][6] Valuation Insights - A detailed valuation comparison across various semiconductor segments, including foundry, back-end, memory, and integrated device manufacturers (IDM), is provided, showcasing P/E ratios, EPS growth, and return on equity (ROAE) metrics [6][7] - TSMC's projected revenue from AI semiconductors is estimated to account for approximately 34% of its total revenue by 2027 [16][18] Future Capex Expectations - An estimated additional US$3-4 trillion in AI capital expenditures is expected in the remainder of the decade, with AI semiconductors identified as a major growth driver [20][22] Supply Chain Considerations - The supply chain for semiconductors is showing signs of improvement, with a decline in inventory days noted in the second quarter of 2025 [28][29] - The report also discusses the ongoing shortages in specific memory types, such as DDR4, which are expected to persist into 2026 [29][34] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry in Greater China is positioned for growth, particularly in the AI segment, with several key players identified for investment. The overall sentiment is optimistic, supported by favorable market dynamics and technological advancements.