Nvidia(US:NVDA)2025-10-13 15:12Summary of TSMC and AI Semiconductor Preview Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Semiconductors, specifically focusing on TSMC and AI semiconductor trends [1][2] - Market View: Attractive outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in AI applications [2] Core Insights - Top Investment Picks: - AI Semiconductor: TSMC (Top Pick), Aspeed, Alchip, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, ASMPT, AllRing - Memory Sector: Winbond (Top Pick), GWC, Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix - Non-AI: Novatek, OmniVision, Realtek [5] - AI Demand Dynamics: - The introduction of DeepSeek is expected to increase inferencing AI demand, although there are concerns about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [5] - Historical trends indicate that a decline in semiconductor inventory days is a positive signal for stock price appreciation [5] - Long-term Demand Drivers: - Tech Diffusion: AI semiconductor demand is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, impacting various verticals beyond the semiconductor industry [5] - Tech Deflation: Anticipated "price elasticity" is expected to stimulate demand for technology products [5] Financial Projections for TSMC - Revenue Growth: - 2025 full-year USD revenue growth projections range from over 35% to 30% year-over-year [9] - 4Q25 revenue growth guidance varies from a 3-5% increase to a potential drop of 3-5% [9] - Gross Margin Guidance: - Expected gross margins for 4Q25 are projected between 55% and 61% [9] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS estimates for 3Q25 are around NT$16.30, with consensus estimates slightly lower at NT$15.18 [12] Valuation Metrics - TSMC Valuation: - Current share price is 1,440.0 TWD with a target price of 1,388.0 TWD, indicating a downside of 4% [6] - P/E ratios for TSMC are projected at 31.8 for 2024, decreasing to 21.1 by 2026 [6] Additional Insights - Market Trends: - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a prolonged downcycle in mature node foundry and niche memory due to increased domestic fab supply [5] - The anticipated demand for advanced packaging solutions (Al/CoWoS) is expected to exceed supply in 2026 [9] - Apple's Influence: - Apple’s A20 processors are set to adopt TSMC's N2 technology, which is expected to account for 20-25% of TSMC's total revenue [20] - Future Opportunities: - The data center-related GaN (Gallium Nitride) market is projected to reach US$1.2 billion by 2030, indicating significant growth potential in power semiconductor applications [36] This summary encapsulates the key points from the TSMC and AI semiconductor preview, highlighting the industry's outlook, financial projections, and strategic insights for potential investment opportunities.