Summary of PICC P&C (2328.HK) 9M25E Profit Alert Company Overview - Company: PICC P&C (Property and Casualty Insurance) - Market Cap: HK$417,719 million (US$53,728 million) [7] Key Financial Highlights - 9M25E Net Profit: Estimated to increase by 40% to 60% year-over-year (yoy), reaching between Rmb37.5 billion and Rmb42.8 billion under China GAAP [1][2] - 1H25 Growth: Previous growth of 34% yoy in net profit [1] - 3Q25E Net Profit: Expected to range from Rmb14 billion to Rmb19 billion, representing an increase of approximately 51% to 108% yoy [3] Core Drivers of Earnings Growth - Underwriting Profit: Significant year-over-year growth attributed to enhanced operational capabilities and risk control [4] - Investment Income: Considerable increase in total investment income due to a rise in the capital market and increased allocation to high-quality equity assets [4] Valuation and Target Price - Target Price: HK$21.20, derived from a three-stage model with key assumptions including: - Discount rate: 11.0% - First-stage growth: 7.8% - Second-stage growth: 6.8% - Terminal growth: 4.2% [9] Risks - Downside Risks: Potential challenges include: - Worse-than-expected auto insurance price wars - Increased frequency of catastrophes - Economic downturn [10] Investment Recommendation - Rating: Buy - Expected Share Price Return: 12.9% - Expected Dividend Yield: 3.8% - Expected Total Return: 16.7% [7] Additional Insights - The mid-point of the estimated 9M25E earnings is Rmb40.1 billion, which exceeds the full-year consensus estimate of Rmb39.9 billion [2] - The robust earnings growth is notable despite a high base for comparison in 3Q25 [1]
中国财险-2025 年前 9 个月盈利预警：承保利润与投资回报双增长，盈利同比增长 + 40~60%