YanKershop(SZ:002847)2025-10-19 15:58Summary of Yankershop Food Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Yankershop Food - Industry: Snacks Industry in China - Coverage Initiation: Buy rating with a price target of Rmb90.00, implying 27x/22x 2026E/2027E PE [2][5][10] Key Points Growth Projections - Revenue Growth: Forecasted revenue CAGR of 15% from 2024 to 2027, with specific YoY growth rates of 18% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 13% in 2027 [3][10] - Konjac Products: Expected to be a major growth driver, with revenue projected to increase from over Rmb800 million in 2024 to more than Rmb3,000 million in 2027, representing a 54% CAGR [3][10][14] Product and Channel Strategy - Product Focus: Strategic transition towards core products, particularly konjac, spicy & braised snacks, and bakery products [3][26] - Omnichannel Strategy: Expansion into multiple channels, including snack discounters and distributors, to capture growth potential [2][16][50] - Channel Growth: Snack discounter channel sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% from 2024 to 2027, increasing its contribution to total sales from 9.0% in 2024 to 12.5% in 2027 [10][50] Margin Improvement - Net Profit Margin (NPM): Projected improvement from 10.7% in 2024 to 13.7% in 2027, driven by limited margin dilution from channel shifts and a more focused product strategy [4][18][69] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM): Expected stabilization at 29-30% in 2025-27, with improvements due to favorable raw material prices and economies of scale [18][69] Financial Metrics - Valuation: Stock trading at 21x 12-month forward PE, below historical average of 25x since 2022, and slightly below peers [5][19] - Revenue Forecast: Projected revenues to grow from Rmb5,304 million in 2024 to Rmb8,085 million in 2027 [6][26] Market Position - Competitive Landscape: Yankershop is positioned as a leader in the Chinese snacks industry, with a diversified product portfolio and strong brand recognition [2][10][25] - Consumer Trends: Increasing popularity of modern snacks, including konjac, among consumers, with Yankershop gaining market share [39][49] Risks and Considerations - Online Channel Performance: Anticipated slowdown in online sales due to strategic cuts in offerings, leading to a projected decline of 40-50% YoY in online sales for 2025 [55][64] - Debt Levels: Net debt projected to increase, with a forecast of Rmb649 million in 2025 [6] Conclusion Yankershop Food is positioned for significant growth in the Chinese snacks market, driven by a clear product strategy focused on konjac products and an effective omnichannel approach. The company is expected to improve its margins and deliver strong revenue growth, making it an attractive investment opportunity.