Ardagh Metal Packaging(US:AMBP)2025-10-23 15:00Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 6% year-over-year, reaching $208 million, which was at the upper end of guidance [4][14] - Year-to-date global volumes increased by over 3% compared to the previous year, despite being below expectations for the quarter [4][5] - The company expects full-year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $720 million to $735 million based on current FX rates [14] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, Q3 revenue increased by 9% to $625 million, or 3% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to volume growth [5][6] - Adjusted EBITDA in Europe rose by 4% to $82 million, although it decreased by 4% on a constant currency basis due to input cost recovery headwinds [6] - In the Americas, revenue increased by 8% to $803 million, with adjusted EBITDA also rising by 8% to $126 million, supported by lower operational costs [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, beverage can shipments decreased by 17% due to a weak industry backdrop, with beer can volumes falling by around 14% [10][11] - North America shipments increased by 1% for the quarter, with year-to-date shipments up by 5% [7][10] - The company anticipates a modest impact on Q4 performance due to supply chain issues but maintains guidance for mid-single-digit growth in North America shipments for the full year [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The beverage can segment continues to benefit from innovation and share gains, with a focus on sustainability and reducing emissions [5][14] - The company expects a transition year in 2026, with growth anticipated in 2027 due to contracted additional filling locations and ongoing market growth [10][14] - The company is upgrading its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, reflecting resilient performance across segments [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while demand elasticity is not significantly impacting sales currently, there are risks for 2026 due to potential higher aluminum costs [20][21] - The outlook for the beer category in Europe is cautious, with expectations for stabilization in 2026 [85][86] - Management expressed optimism about the North American market, citing strong customer demand for non-alcoholic beverages [9][10] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of over $600 million and a net leverage ratio of 5.2 [12][13] - The quarterly ordinary dividend announced was $0.10 per share [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Effects of demand elasticity and alumina pricing - Management indicated that there is currently no significant impact from demand elasticity, but risks may arise in 2026 as hedges roll off [20][21] Question: Growth expectations in North America and Brazil - Management expects North America to grow at a market level of 1% to 2% in 2026, with Brazil anticipated to return to growth [10][21] Question: Capacity and footprint in Europe - Management confirmed that the European market remains tight, with no changes to the timing of needing new capacity [39][40] Question: Input cost recovery in Europe - Management noted that input cost recovery challenges are primarily related to European aluminum prices, which have been impacted by energy costs [57][58] Question: Aluminum pricing and promotional activity - Management acknowledged that rising aluminum prices could lead to inflation on the shelf, impacting volumes, but remains cautiously optimistic about growth [101][102] Question: Transition to new product categories - Management is implementing projects to increase flexibility in production lines to better capture growth in faster-growing categories [75][76]