美联储监测 - 10 月 FOMC 预览：降息 25 个基点并为缩表结束做准备-Federal Reserve Monitor-October FOMC Preview 25bp Rate Cut and Prepare for the End of QT

October 23, 2025 10:01 PM GMT • We expect the Fed to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75-4.0% and retain an easing bias. Guidance past year-end will be limited by the shutdown and lack of data availability. • The Fed will debate ending balance sheet normalization. We expect the end to QT to be announced in January and effective beginning February. Risks tilt toward an earlier end, in October or December. • We think the Fed will reduce IORB by an additional 5bp in either Octobe ...