Netflix 公司:三季度无重大变化;维持中性评级,目标价 1275 美元
NetflixNetflix(US:NFLX)2025-10-27 00:31

Summary of Netflix Inc. 3Q Results and Outlook Company Overview - Company: Netflix Inc (NFLX) - Industry: Streaming Services Key Financial Results - 3Q Revenue: $11.51 billion, reflecting a 17% growth year-over-year, in line with guidance [1][18] - Operating Income: $3.25 billion, with an operating margin of 28.2%, slightly below the expected 31.5% [1][18] - Free Cash Flow (FCF): $2.66 billion, exceeding expectations by 21.7% [1][18] - GAAP EPS: $5.87, which is 14.4% lower than the expected $6.86 [1][18] 4Q Outlook - Revenue Growth: Expected to decelerate to 16% due to foreign exchange headwinds and increased churn in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - Operating Margin: Projected at 23.9%, slightly below consensus [1] - Brazil Tax Impact: Ongoing tax expense of approximately $40 million per quarter, contributing to margin pressure [1] Subscriber Metrics - Global Paid Streaming Subscribers: 319.1 million, with net adds of 7 million in 3Q [1][18] - Regional Performance: - UCAN: 1.25 million net adds - EMEA: 2.75 million net adds - LATAM: 1 million net adds - APAC: 2 million net adds [1][18] Advertising Revenue - Ad Revenue Growth: Expected to double from approximately $1.5 billion in 2024 to $3 billion in 2025 [1][7] - Ad Tier Subscribers: Projected to grow significantly, with a year-over-year growth rate of 78.9% [1][23] Content Strategy - Content Slate for 4Q: Strong lineup including the final season of Stranger Things and new films, which is expected to drive engagement [1][7] - Engagement Metrics: Total view hours grew slightly faster than the 1% growth in the first half of 2025, with Netflix capturing 8.6% of TV time in the US [1][7] M&A Considerations - M&A Potential: Management indicated openness to selective mergers and acquisitions to enhance content offerings and intellectual property [1] Valuation and Price Target - Price Target: Reduced from $1,300 to $1,275 based on a valuation of 36x 2027E GAAP EPS of $35.55 [1][11] - Market Cap: Approximately $538.79 billion [9] Other Notable Points - Expense Growth: Overall expense growth is expected to align with 2025 levels, excluding the Brazil tax catch-up [1] - Future Guidance: No guidance provided for 2026; to be discussed in the 4Q earnings call [1] This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics, strategic insights, and future outlook for Netflix Inc. as discussed in the recent earnings call.