GUOXIN MICRO(SZ:002049)2025-10-28 03:06Summary of Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd - Ticker: 002049.SZ - Industry: Greater China Technology Semiconductors - Market Cap: Rmb71,995 million - Current Stock Price: Rmb84.74 (as of October 27, 2025) - Price Target: Rmb50.00, indicating a downside of 41% from the current price Key Financial Highlights - 3Q25 Earnings: - EPS: Rmb0.67, flat QoQ and up 110% YoY, but 5% below the estimate of Rmb0.71 [6][4] - Revenue: Rmb1,857 million, down 8% QoQ but up 34% YoY, exceeding estimates by 13% [6][4] - Gross Margin: Increased to 58.3% from 56.3% in 2Q25, up 2 percentage points QoQ and 3.9 percentage points YoY [6][4] Market and Demand Insights - Demand Recovery: Specialty IC demand is recovering, with an increase in sales volume [2][4] - Contractual Liability: Decreased by 8% QoQ in 3Q25, suggesting that order momentum may not be as strong as sales growth [2][4] Valuation and Risks - Valuation Methodology: Based on a residual income model with an assumed cost of equity of 8.6% and a medium-term growth rate of 10% [8][4] - Risks to Upside: - Revenue contribution from new projects - Stronger-than-expected demand from specialty FPGA - Technology improvements in space-grade specialty IC [9][4] - Risks to Downside: - Slower-than-expected new project development - Government budget allocation shifts away from national defense [9][4] Analyst Ratings - Stock Rating: Underweight (UW) [4][4] - Industry View: Attractive [4][4] Additional Financial Metrics - Fiscal Year Ending: December 2024, 2025e, 2026e, 2027e - Projected EPS: Rmb2.17 (2025e), Rmb2.75 (2026e), Rmb3.26 (2027e) [4][4] - P/E Ratios: 46.4 (2024), 39.0 (2025e), 30.8 (2026e), 26.0 (2027e) [4][4] - ROE: Expected to rise from 10.1% (2024) to 17.1% (2027e) [4][4] Conclusion Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd is experiencing a mixed financial performance with a notable recovery in specialty IC demand. However, the decrease in contractual liability raises concerns about future order momentum. The company is rated as underweight, reflecting cautious sentiment among analysts despite an attractive industry outlook.