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金山办公-2025 年三季度超预期;个人订阅改善且企业端需求强劲

Summary of Beijing Kingsoft Office Software (688111.SS) 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: Beijing Kingsoft Office Software - Ticker: 688111.SS - Established: 1989 - Main Products: WPS Office, Kingsoft Doc, Power Word - Market Position: Leading domestic office software provider in China with a significant user base in overseas markets - Ownership: Kingsoft Corporation (3888.HK) holds a 51.8% stake in the company Key Financial Highlights - 3Q25 Revenue: Rmb1,521 million, up 25% YoY, exceeding consensus of Rmb1,391 million [2][3] - Individual Subscription Growth: 11% YoY increase, contributing to overall revenue growth [2] - WPS 365 Growth: 72% YoY increase, indicating strong demand [2] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 86.5%, up from 84.1% in 2Q25 [2] - Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 23%, up from 19% in 2Q25 [2] - Net Profit: Rmb431 million, above consensus estimates [2] Revenue Outlook - Monthly Active Users (MAU): Increased by 14% YoY for PC and 4.5% YoY for mobile as of September [3] - AI Product Rollout: WPS AI 3.0 launched in July 2023, expected to drive further growth in 2C subscriptions [3] - Localization Projects: Strong recovery noted, with government procurement showing accelerating progress [3][4] - Geopolitical Factors: Government's push for self-reliance in technology is expected to enhance demand for WPS products among SOEs and government entities [4] Investment Strategy - Rating: Buy - Target Price: Rmb410, raised from Rmb350, reflecting a 29.3% expected return [6][10] - Key Drivers: - Strong position in the domestic market amid government support for local substitutes - Potential growth from AI and localization projects - Increasing individual subscription revenue driven by improved ARPU [21] Valuation - Valuation Methodology: PE valuation with a target 2026E PE of ~80x, slightly below historical averages but justified by growth potential [22] - Market Capitalization: Rmb146.83 billion (approximately US$20.62 billion) [6] Risks - Key Risks: - Slower-than-expected monetization of AI products - Uncertainty from US AI chip restrictions - Potential slowdown in individual subscription growth - Risks associated with localization projects [23][25] Conclusion Beijing Kingsoft Office Software is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for office software driven by AI advancements and government initiatives for localization. The company's strong financial performance in 3Q25 and positive outlook for future growth make it an attractive investment opportunity.