Apple(US:AAPL)2025-10-29 02:52Summary of Apple Supply Chain Tracker Industry Overview - Industry: U.S. IT Hardware, specifically focusing on Apple Inc. and its supply chain dynamics related to the iPhone 17 launch [1][8] Key Points iPhone Sales Performance - Sales Growth: iPhone 17 launch saw a 15% year-over-year (YoY) increase in sell-through volumes and a 10.8% YoY increase in revenue for September 2025 [2][22] - Average Selling Price (ASP): Despite the revenue growth, ASP declined by 3.8% YoY due to the introduction of the lower-priced iPhone 16e, which diluted the overall ASP [2][22] - Regional Performance: Strong volume growth was particularly noted in Europe (20.4% YoY) and Japan (18.2% YoY) [22][23] Channel Inventory - Inventory Levels: Channel inventory rose to 37 million units post-launch, with inventory weeks normalizing to 7.2 weeks due to strong sales [3][34] - Sell-in vs. Sell-through: Elevated sell-in was observed during the September launch, consistent with historical patterns, but strong sales kept inventory levels healthy [34] Implications for Apple - Demand vs. ASP Concerns: While strong demand for iPhones is evident, concerns about ASP deterioration could impact gross margins. The estimated ASP for iPhones is lower than consensus, suggesting potential revenue alignment with expectations for FQ4'25 [4][42] - Services Revenue: Services revenue is projected to be slightly better than estimates, with a predicted revenue of $28.5 billion for FQ4, based on strong correlations with App Store revenue [43][42] Foundry and Memory Insights - Foundry Dynamics: TSMC is expected to benefit from the iPhone 17's strong sales, with all new models utilizing upgraded chips, indicating sustained momentum [5][46] - Memory Content Growth: Significant DRAM content improvements were noted, with 3 out of 4 SKUs expanding from 8GB to 12GB, leading to a 20% YoY increase in blended DRAM content [5][49] Supplier Performance - Luxshare and Camera Suppliers: Luxshare benefits from a high revenue mix from Apple, while camera suppliers like Largan and Sunny Optical see marginal benefits from the lower mix of iPhone Air models [6][5] - Qualcomm's Position: Qualcomm's performance is positively impacted by the iPhone 17 models, although long-term reliance on Qualcomm is expected to diminish as Apple moves towards in-house solutions [6][5] Investment Ratings - Apple (AAPL): Rated Outperform with a price target of $290 [8] - Other Suppliers: - SanDisk (SNDK): Outperform, price target $120 [9] - Samsung Electronics: Outperform, price target KRW 95,000 [10] - SK Hynix: Outperform, price target KRW 400,000 [11] - Micron: Outperform, price target $170 [12] - TSMC: Outperform, price target NT$ 1,444 [13] Conclusion - The iPhone 17 launch is significantly stronger than previous models, with robust sales and service revenue growth. However, ASP deterioration poses a risk to gross margins, necessitating close monitoring in upcoming earnings reports [4][42]