Two Harbors Investment (TWO) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company recorded a comprehensive loss of $80.2 million, or $0.77 per share, including a litigation settlement expense of $175.1 million, which was $1.68 per share [16][17] - The return on book value was negative 0.63% including the litigation expense, while it would have been positive 7.6% excluding the expense [16][17] - Total economic return for the third quarter was negative 6.3%, and positive 7.6% without the litigation expense [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The RMBS portfolio decreased to $10.9 billion from $11.4 billion due to agency securities sales [6] - The company sold $19.1 billion UPB of MSR and an additional $10 billion UPB expected to settle soon, both slightly above marks [6][8] - The direct-to-consumer originations platform funded $49 million of UPB in first and second liens, with a record high of $60 million UPB in second liens brokered during the quarter [12][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September, marking the first cut since November 2024, which positively impacted equity markets, with the S&P 500 up almost 8% by quarter-end [10][11] - The nominal spread for current coupon RMBS tightened by 26 basis points to 145 basis points to the swap curve [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its MSR-focused investment strategy and grow its servicing and origination activities [9][13] - The company plans to redeem $262 million UPB of outstanding convertible notes to reduce structural leverage to historical levels [8] - The company is optimistic about the investment opportunities available in the market, particularly in the MSR and MBS portfolio [15][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's liquidity and risk metrics post-litigation settlement, indicating a clear path forward [5][9] - The company sees mortgage spreads as attractive despite recent tightening and believes its strategy is well-positioned to capitalize on market conditions [14][31] - Management highlighted the importance of technology investments to improve customer experiences and reduce costs [13][69] Other Important Information - The company has established a significant relationship with a new sub-servicing client, bringing the total sub-servicing UPB to approximately $40 billion [8] - The company is focused on improving efficiencies and lowering costs in light of the recent settlement payments [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key drivers of the increase in the EAD in the third quarter relative to the second quarter? - The increase in EAD is attributed to the decrease in financing costs, allowing asset yields to remain constant [34] Question: Can you give us an update on your book value quarter to date? - The book value was up about 1% as of last Friday [37] Question: Can you talk about the various risk metrics as you think about the size of the portfolio following the settlement? - The company looks at multiple risk metrics, including returns available on asset classes and overall leverage [41][43] Question: Does the return potential slide factor in potential cost savings? - The return potential slide reflects current costs, with potential upside as cost savings are realized [44][46] Question: Can you help us understand the coupon positioning strategy? - The coupon exposure is managed based on how rates move and the current coupon risk in the MSR portfolio [51][52] Question: Can you provide insight into growth opportunities in the sub-servicing business? - The company is focused on building relationships and attracting clients dissatisfied with their current sub-servicers [60][61] Question: How do you see MSR valuations responding to a further drop in interest rates? - MSR valuations are expected to remain stable, with strong demand for low gross WAC MSR [87][88] Question: What is the valuation of the flow MSRs that you're originating versus your existing portfolio? - The price multiple for the entire portfolio is 5.8 times, with variations based on coupon rates [99][100]