I have a B.Tech degree in Mechanical Engineering from a top school in India. For nearly twenty five years, I have worked in the oil and gas sector, primarily in the Middle East. I work at the intersection of engineering, operations, and project management in an industry that does not forgive mistakes - so I have learned to be efficient, careful, and disciplined. These traits inform my investment strategy. For much of my professional career, I have maintained a serious and sustained interest in the U.S. equi ...

Core Viewpoint - Two Harbors Investment (TWO) experienced a significant decline in book value (BV) during Q2 2025, attributed to legal losses and hedging decisions, leading to a recommendation of "hold" on shares [1][8][10]. Performance Summary - The actual quarterly BV decrease for TWO was 17.2%, which was worse than the projected 14.8% decline, indicating a severe underperformance [2][8]. - A unique legal dispute with the previous external manager negatively impacted TWO's BV during the quarter [2][10]. - Hedging decisions made by TWO had a negative effect on BV but positively influenced core earnings/EAD [3][7]. Portfolio Management - TWO maintained the size of its on-balance sheet fixed-rate agency MBS/investment portfolio, contrary to expectations of asset shedding due to legal issues [4][10]. - The company made bulk purchases of $6.4 billion in MSRs, resulting in a $2.0 billion increase in UPB, which was contrary to the anticipated decrease [5][10]. - The derivatives sub-portfolio underperformed expectations, primarily due to the lack of asset sales and an increase in the hedging coverage ratio from 77% to 85% [6][14]. Earnings Performance - Core earnings/EAD for TWO modestly outperformed expectations, driven by lower net interest expenses and higher net servicing income [7][8]. - The reported core earnings were $29.594 million, exceeding the projected $24 million, marking a 23.48% beat [18]. Valuation and Recommendations - TWO's current valuation is deemed appropriate, with a hold recommendation due to the ongoing legal matters and the need for spread stabilization [22][23]. - The company’s dividend yield stands at 15.45%, with a payout ratio of 107% [20].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a total economic return of negative 14.5% for the second quarter, and negative 1.4% excluding a loss contingency accrual of $1.92 per share [5][16] - The book value decreased to $12.14 per share, reflecting the impact of the loss contingency accrual [16] - A comprehensive loss of $221.8 million or $2.13 per share was reported, which would have been $21.9 million or 21¢ per share without the accrual [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - First lien originations increased to $48 million UPB in Q2, up 68% from $29 million UPB in Q1, outpacing the nationwide trend of 16% [8] - Second liens brokered amounted to $44 million UPB, with the company beginning to originate second liens in its own name [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 6.6% to a high near 6.9%, stabilizing in the 6.7% to 6.8% range by the end of the quarter [6][7] - The volume of MSR available in the bulk market has decreased by about 30% year over year [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is enhancing its direct-to-consumer originations platform to recapture loans in its portfolio that may refinance [8] - Significant investments in AI technologies are being made to improve efficiencies and customer experiences [11][12] - The core strategy focuses on low coupon MSR paired with agency RMBS to benefit from stable prepayments and wide agency spreads [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted ongoing tariff threats and geopolitical tensions as potential market weighers, but also highlighted opportunities in the current environment [30] - The company expects RMBS and MSR portfolios to respond positively if the Federal Reserve cuts rates later in the year [7] Other Important Information - The company issued $115 million in senior notes due in 2030 for net proceeds of $110.8 million, part of which will be used for refinancing [19] - The economic debt to equity ratio increased to 7x, which is within the historical leverage range of 5 to 8 [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the current leverage level a new standard? - Management confirmed that the leverage of 7x is within the historical range and reflects current market conditions [34][35] Question: Update on economic return performance in July? - The company reported an economic return of about 1.5% for July [36] Question: Differences between expected returns and EAD metric? - Management explained that EAD is based on historical purchase yields, while expected returns reflect forward-looking market conditions [43] Question: Thoughts on financing strategy and shift from repo to unsecured? - The issuance of a baby bond was primarily to prefinance the maturity of existing convertible debt [63] Question: Impact of steepening yield curve on the portfolio? - Management indicated that a steepening yield curve could have counterbalancing effects on MSR values, affecting both float income and prepayment assumptions [70] Question: Plans for second liens in the investment portfolio? - The company is open to retaining second liens if yields are attractive, but will also consider selling them [55] Question: Expense structure and AI investment impact? - Most AI-related expenses will be recognized as operational expenses rather than capitalized, affecting the expense ratio [88][92]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the Quarterly Period Ended: June 30, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Commission File Number 001-34506 TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT CORP. (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter) Maryland 27-0312904 (State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation or Organization) ...

Financial Performance - The company's book value per share was $12.14 [6] - The comprehensive loss per share was $(2.13) [6] - Excluding the loss contingency accrual, the economic return on book value was (1.4)% [6] - Including the loss contingency accrual, the economic return on book value was (14.5)% [6] - The company declared a common stock dividend of $0.39 per share [6, 19] Portfolio Composition - The investment portfolio totaled $14.4 billion [6] - The economic debt-to-equity ratio was 7.0x [6] - The fair value of MSR (Mortgage Servicing Rights) was $3.016 billion [47] - The UPB (Unpaid Principal Balance) of the MSR portfolio was $200.363 billion [47] RoundPoint Operations - RoundPoint serviced UPB (Unpaid Principal Balance) was $204 billion [13] - Direct-to-consumer originations funded first lien loans of $48.6 million UPB [13] - Direct-to-consumer originations brokered second lien loans of $44.0 million UPB [13]

TWO Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Wider Spreads Lead to Attractive Levered Returns NEW YORK, July 28, 2025 - TWO (Two Harbors Investment Corp., NYSE: TWO), an MSR-focused real estate investment trust (REIT), today announced its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. Quarterly Summary "The combination of our investment portfolio and operating company allows us to be dynamic and responsive as opportunities emerge across the mortgage finance space," said Bill Greenberg, TWO's Pr ...

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks are currently undervalued, presenting potential investment opportunities, especially those offering high dividend yields ranging from 8.3% to 17.1% [2] Group 1: Small-Cap Stocks Overview - The valuation gap between the S&P 500 and S&P 600 is at its widest since the late 1990s, suggesting small-cap stocks are significantly cheaper [2] - The article discusses five small-cap stocks with attractive dividend yields, indicating a potential for high returns despite their current low valuations [2] Group 2: Playtika Holding (PLTK) - Playtika, a mobile game developer, has a dividend yield exceeding 8% but has not raised its payout recently, indicating a decline in earnings and sales [4][5] - Analysts project a 32% increase in profits for 2024, despite the company's struggles in the competitive mobile gaming market [6] - Playtika's valuation is low at 6 times forward earnings, but there are concerns about its growth prospects [7] Group 3: Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) - CGBD is a business development company focused on U.S. middle-market companies, primarily investing in first-lien debt [8][9] - Recent earnings reports have shown disappointing results, with an increase in non-accrual loans and a stagnant base dividend of 40 cents per share [10][11] - CGBD shares are trading at a 16% discount to net asset value, but operational challenges raise concerns about future dividend sustainability [12] Group 4: Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF) - BCSF provides financing solutions to a diverse range of companies, with a significant portion of its investments in first-lien debt [13][14] - The company has maintained its regular dividend but has introduced special dividends, raising concerns about future dividend coverage due to declining net investment income projections [16][17] - Analysts expect BCSF's dividend ratios to be high, leaving little room for error in case of operational difficulties [17] Group 5: Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO) - TWO operates in the mortgage REIT sector, focusing on mortgage servicing rights and agency residential mortgage-backed securities [19][22] - The company has faced significant share price declines, resulting in a high yield of over 17%, but recent litigation charges could impact its book value and dividend sustainability [24][25] - TWO's current dividend rate of 45 cents per share is at risk due to the potential impact of litigation on earnings available for distribution [25] Group 6: Franklin BSP Realty Trust (FBRT) - FBRT is a mortgage REIT focused on commercial mortgage-backed securities, with a significant portion of its portfolio in multifamily properties [26][27] - The company is trading at a 28% discount to book value, with a low P/E ratio based on 2026 earnings estimates, indicating potential value [28] - Concerns exist regarding the stability of its dividend, as the payout has not changed since 2021, and market conditions could necessitate a review of the dividend policy [29][30]

I ventured into investing in high school in 2011, mainly in REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, starting a fascination with markets and the economy that has not faded despite the years. More recently I have been combining long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts. I approach investing purely from a fundamental long-term point of view. On Seeking Alpha I mostly cover REITs and financials, with occasional articles on ETFs and other stocks driven by a macro trade idea.Analyst’s D ...

T2 Metals Reports Results from the Third Drill Program at the Sherridon VMS Project, Manitoba Includes High Grade Gold and Silver Intersection Grading 7.2 g/t Au, and 145.5 g/t Ag June 04, 2025 8:00 AM EDT | Source: T2 Metals Corp. Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - June 4, 2025) - T2 Metals Corp. (TSXV: TWO) (OTCQB: TWOSF) (WKN: A2DR6E) ("T2" or the "Company") is pleased to announce results from the Q1 2025 drill program at the Sherridon Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide ("VMS") project in central ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated decline in book value for mortgage REITs during Q1 2025, indicating a negative trend in the sector [1][4][6] - Two Harbors is highlighted as a significant underperformer among agency mortgage REITs, facing legal challenges that could further impact its book value [4][5] - The overall volatility in the mortgage REIT market is contributing to the decline in book values, with most companies projected to see decreases ranging from 1.4% to 14.5% [6][7] Mortgage REITs - The article notes that volatility in the market, including tariff issues and bond market fluctuations, is detrimental to mortgage REITs [6] - Most mortgage REITs are expected to experience declines in book value per share, with only one REIT estimated to have a slight increase of less than 1% [7] - ARMOUR Residential REIT is mentioned as one of the larger projected losers in terms of book value [8] Business Development Companies (BDCs) - In contrast to mortgage REITs, BDCs are showing more stability in book value, with gains of about 1% for the top performers and declines of around 2% for the worst performers [9] Legal and Management Issues - Two Harbors' management faced criticism for their performance during the pandemic, leading to a legal battle that may result in significant financial losses for shareholders [4][5] - The potential legal loss for Two Harbors could allow the former external manager to collect approximately $140 million, raising concerns about corporate governance and accountability [4][5] Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes a preference for lower-risk shares due to the current volatility in the market, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in mortgage REITs [10]