振华股份20251029

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhenhua Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The global chromium industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with demand growth at approximately 9% outpacing production growth at around 3%. A projected supply gap of 4% is expected by 2025, increasing to nearly 25% by 2028 [2][5][25]. - Demand for metallurgical-grade chromium, particularly in commercial aviation, gas turbines, and military sectors, is forecasted to grow at rates between 19% and 22% [2][5]. Company Insights - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. is positioned as a global leader in the chromium industry, enhancing profitability through cost control, capacity expansion (increasing sodium dichromate capacity to 350,000 tons, with a long-term goal of 450,000 tons), and acquisitions of competitors [2][6][25]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in AI and aerospace demand, alongside supply-side constraints, leading to a potential revaluation of its stock [2][6]. Key Points on Demand and Supply - The chromium industry is entering a tight balance state, with improved performance during off-peak seasons and earlier price increases during peak seasons. Price hikes are anticipated to start in April 2024 and February 2025, indicating a potential price increase cycle beginning as early as late 2025 [2][7]. - The most constrained segment of the chromium salt industry is the sodium dichromate segment due to strict regulations on chromium slag treatment, which is expected to lead to shortages [2][10]. Price Trends - As of July 29, the price of metallic chromium reached a historical high but has since declined due to tariffs imposed by China on U.S. exports. It is anticipated that prices will enter an upward trend again following trade rebalancing [2][9]. Future Outlook for Zhenhua Co., Ltd. - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in the coming years due to its proactive management, cost reductions, and capacity expansions. The company’s valuation is currently below its actual value, with new applications expected to drive revaluation [2][6][25]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity, with sodium dichromate production expected to reach 300,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 350,000 tons in 2026, and potentially 450,000 tons by 2028 [2][8]. Demand from Key Sectors - The demand for metallic chromium in commercial aviation engines is significant, with each additional 10,000 tons of chromium demand translating to an increase of 40,000 tons in sodium dichromate demand. Boeing and Airbus are experiencing substantial order backlogs, with Boeing's orders increasing by 300% year-on-year [2][15][16]. - The military sector is also driving demand for high-temperature alloys and metallic chromium, with European military spending increasing significantly [2][17]. Global Market Dynamics - China holds a dominant position in the global metallic chromium supply chain, with exports expected to reach historical highs in 2024 despite tariff impacts on U.S. imports. The European market is showing significant demand growth [2][11][21][24]. Risks and Considerations - The downstream industries exhibit cyclical volatility risks, including potential changes in environmental policies and safety production risks that need to be closely monitored [2][25].