Mindray(SZ:300760)2025-10-30 02:01Summary of Mindray Bio-Medical Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Mindray Bio-Medical (300760.SZ) - Industry: China Healthcare - Current Stock Price: Rmb222.83 (as of October 29, 2025) - Market Capitalization: Rmb270,892 million - Price Target: Rmb270.00, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price [5][69] Financial Performance - 3Q Revenue: Increased by 1.5% year-over-year (y/y) but was 5% below Morgan Stanley estimates [7] - Operating Profit: Decreased by 14.9% y/y, 4% below estimates [7] - Recurring Profit: Declined by 17.8% y/y, impacted by foreign exchange losses and higher taxes [7] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM): Increased by 0.7 percentage points y/y to 61.3% [4] - Operating Profit Margin (OPM): Decreased by 6.7 percentage points y/y to 35.1% [4] - Quarterly Dividend: Declared at Rmb1.64 billion, maintaining a stable payout ratio of 65.2% [7] Segment Performance - IVD (In Vitro Diagnostics): - Revenue decreased by 2.8% y/y; China sales down approximately 10%, while overseas sales increased by 11% [7] - PMLS (Patient Monitoring and Life Support): - Revenue increased by 2.6% y/y; China sales down approximately 22%, overseas sales up by 14% [7] - Imaging: - Revenue remained flat y/y; China sales down approximately 11%, overseas sales up by 9% [7] - Overseas Sales: Surpassed 50% of total group revenue during the first nine months of 2025, with significant contributions from the EU (+29%) and CIS/Middle East (+18%) [7] Market Outlook - 4Q Growth Expectations: Anticipated to accelerate off a low base, with a focus on improving sales through tenders translating into actual sales [2] - Future Projections: - EPS estimates for 2025: Rmb8.44, with a gradual increase projected through 2027 [5] - Revenue projections for 2025: Rmb36,183 million, increasing to Rmb44,073 million by 2027 [5] Risks and Opportunities - Upside Risks: - Stronger tailwinds from equipment trade-in policies - Faster-than-expected ramp-up in key product sales - Potential for accretive mergers and acquisitions [12] - Downside Risks: - Prolonged negative impacts from policy headwinds - Trade tensions affecting sales and earnings - Failure to generate synergies from M&A activities [12] Conclusion - Investment Rating: Overweight, with an attractive industry view [5][69] - Valuation Methodology: Discounted cash flow model with a WACC of 8.8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [10]