东方电缆_2025 年第三季度业绩良好;海上风电需求增长推动盈利提升

Summary of Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables (NBO) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables (603606.SS) - Industry: Offshore Wind Power and Cable Manufacturing Key Financial Highlights - 3Q25 Net Profit: Rmb441 million, representing a 53.1% year-over-year (yoy) increase and a 129.6% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) increase [1][2][13] - Revenue: Rmb3,066 million in 3Q25, up 16.5% yoy and 34.2% qoq [2][12] - Gross Profit Margin: Increased to 22.3%, up 1.3 percentage points (ppts) yoy and 6.6 ppts qoq [2][13] - Backlog: Rmb19.5 billion as of October 18, 2025, with Rmb11.7 billion from submarine and high-voltage land cable orders [3][14] Market Dynamics - Offshore Wind Demand: China aims to add at least 15GW of offshore wind capacity annually from 2026 to 2030, nearly double the average of 8GW per year from 2021 to 2025 [1][4] - Installed Capacity Targets: The goal is to reach 1,300GW by 2030, 2,000GW by 2035, and 5,000GW by 2060, significantly higher than previous targets [4] Order and Delivery Insights - Strong Order Flow: NBO's backlog increased by 1.1 times yoy with a significant portion from high-margin products [3][14] - Delivery Expectations: Anticipated increased deliveries in 4Q25 and 2026, including exports for the Inch Cape Offshore wind project in the UK [3][18] Earnings Forecast - Earnings Revision: 2025-2027 earnings estimates raised by 4-8% due to higher submarine cable sales [1] - Target Price: Increased to Rmb81.00/share, representing a 37% upside from the current price of Rmb66.20 [6][9] Additional Insights - Cost Reduction: The unit capital expenditure (capex) for offshore wind projects decreased to Rmb9,000-12,500/kW in 2024, down from Rmb9,500-14,000/kW in 2023 [29] - Competitive Pricing: The average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new offshore wind power has reduced to Rmb0.3/kWh, making it competitive with market tariffs [29] Conclusion - NBO is positioned to benefit from the accelerating demand for offshore wind power in China, supported by a robust order backlog and favorable market conditions. The company's financial performance in 3Q25 reflects strong growth, and future earnings are expected to improve further due to increased submarine cable sales and project deliveries.