Citi(US:C)2025-11-03 02:36Summary of the Conference Call on Thermal Coal Production and Inventory Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of October 23 to October 29, 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Production Data - Total Output: China's thermal coal output from the sample mines was 11,962 kt, reflecting a week-over-week (WoW) increase of 0.4%, but a year-over-year (YoY) decrease of 1.7% [1]. - Regional Breakdown: - Shanxi: 2,865 kt (+1.9% WoW, -2.4% YoY) - Shaanxi: 3,527 kt (+0.8% WoW, -4.8% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 5,570 kt (-0.6% WoW, +0.7% YoY) [1]. - Year-to-Date (YTD) Output: The YTD thermal coal output was 533 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.0% increase YoY, with regional contributions as follows: - Shanxi: +4.1% YoY - Shaanxi: +1.0% YoY - Inner Mongolia: +3.9% YoY [1]. Utilization Ratio - Overall Utilization: The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was 88.6%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points (ppt) WoW but a decrease of 1.6 ppt YoY [1]. - Regional Utilization: - Shanxi: 83.2% (+1.6 ppt WoW, -2.1 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: 90.0% (+0.7 ppt WoW, -4.5 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 90.7% (-0.5 ppt WoW, +0.6 ppt YoY) [1]. Inventory Levels - Total Inventory: The total coal inventory in the sample mines was 3,196 kt as of October 29, 2025, which is an increase of 1.6% WoW but a slight decrease of 0.2% YoY [2]. - Regional Inventory: - Shanxi: 857 kt (+1.3% WoW, -2.3% YoY) - Shaanxi: 691 kt (+2.5% WoW, -13.8% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 1,648 kt (+1.4% WoW, +8.1% YoY) [2]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a pecking order of demand for various materials, with copper, battery materials, and gold leading, followed by aluminum, cement, steel, lithium, and thermal coal [1]. - The data reflects ongoing trends in the thermal coal market, which may be influenced by broader economic conditions and energy demands in China [1][2]. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the conference call regarding the thermal coal industry in China, highlighting production, utilization, and inventory trends.