Apple(US:AAPL)2025-11-03 02:36Summary of Apple Supply Chain Tracker Industry and Company Overview - Industry: U.S. IT Hardware - Company: Apple Inc. (AAPL) Key Points and Arguments iPhone Sales Performance - The iPhone 17 launch has shown a notably stronger performance compared to previous launches, with September iPhone sell-through volumes up 15% YoY and revenue up 10.8% YoY [2][22] - Volume growth was particularly strong in Europe and Japan, with Europe seeing a 20.4% YoY increase in sell-through units and Japan 18.2% YoY [22][23] - The average selling price (ASP) has weakened 3.8% YoY, partly due to the introduction of the lower-priced iPhone 16e [2][22] Channel Inventory - Channel inventory rose to 37 million units following the September launch, with inventory weeks falling to a typical 7.2 weeks due to elevated sales [3][31] - The September launch led to a surge in sell-in and sell-through, consistent with historical seasonality [31] Implications for Apple - Strong iPhone demand and decent service revenue provide confidence for Apple's upcoming FQ4'25 report, but concerns exist regarding ASP deterioration and its potential impact on gross margin [4][39] - iPhone revenue is expected to be in line with expectations, while services revenue is predicted to be slightly better than consensus estimates [40] Foundry and Memory Insights - TSMC is expected to benefit from strong iPhone momentum, with Apple upgrading all new models to new chips in 2024 [5] - DRAM content in iPhones is increasing, with 3 of 4 SKUs expanding from 8GB to 12GB, driving a 20% YoY increase in blended DRAM content [5][48] Services vs. Hardware Growth - Apple's growth is increasingly driven by its services segment, which delivers consistent 12-15% annual growth, while hardware remains more volatile due to seasonal factors [66] Additional Important Insights - The iPhone 17 lineup had a total unit sales increase of 20.6% compared to the iPhone 16 and 29.6% compared to the iPhone 15 in the first month of launch [22] - The ASP for the iPhone 17 Pro starts at $1099, which is $100 higher than the iPhone 16 Pro, indicating a higher overall ASP for the iPhone 17 lineup compared to the previous generation [22] - Apple's services revenue is predicted to be $28,532 million, slightly higher than consensus estimates, indicating a strong correlation with Sensor Tower's global App Store revenue [40] Investment Implications - Apple is rated as Outperform with a price target of $290 due to stronger than expected iPhone 17 demand [8] - Other companies in the supply chain, such as SanDisk, Samsung Electronics, and TSMC, are also rated as Outperform with respective price targets reflecting positive outlooks [9][10][13]