Summary of Yongxin Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Yongxin Co., Ltd. - Industry: Waste-to-energy sector Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Yongxin reported a 24% growth in Q3 2025, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to H1 2025, driven by stable operational factors and enhanced waste resource value, leading to cash flow growth [2][3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue increased by 16% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 15% to 746 million yuan, with a weighted average ROE of 7.06% and a gross margin of 43.8% [2][7] - Q3 net profit growth was 24%, significantly higher than the 9.2% growth in H1 2025, attributed to improved capacity utilization from co-burning of aged waste [7] Industry Dynamics - The waste-to-energy industry has shown unexpected growth and dividend performance over the past two years, with Yongxin achieving a 66% actual dividend payout ratio [3] - The pricing model for waste incineration is case-by-case, and project returns are less affected by macroeconomic conditions due to the essential nature of waste treatment [3] Valuation and Market Perception - Yongxin's current PB ratio is approximately 1.3, lower than peers like Huanlan Environment and Green Power, primarily due to its low ROE [2][5][9] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of over 60%, with a dynamic dividend yield of 3.6% [8] Growth Potential - Future growth is expected to be driven by heat supply transformation in 2026, with anticipated increases in waste volume and capacity utilization in Guangzhou [2][6] - The company has 35,000 tons of projects in hand, with 30,000 tons located in Guangzhou, where 18,000 tons are part of a phase two project not yet included in the national subsidy list, leading to undervalued earnings [10] - Yongxin's operational efficiency is expected to improve with the increase in co-burning of waste, projected to double the kitchen waste processing volume to approximately 1.4 million tons in 2025 [10] Future Cash Flow and Dividend Potential - Free cash flow is projected to reach 1.289 billion yuan in 2024, a 174% increase year-on-year, with further potential for dividend increases [8] - The theoretical dividend potential for 2025 and 2026 is estimated at 142% and 161%, respectively, with a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 62% from 2023 to 2025 [8] Strategic Advantages - Yongxin's BOO model provides a longer operational term without the need to transfer assets to the government, giving it an advantage in contract negotiations [5] - The company is transitioning from power generation to heating to gain incremental revenue and reduce reliance on national subsidies, with significant room for growth in heating capacity [12] Conclusion - Yongxin is positioned to benefit from its advantageous location in Guangzhou, with ongoing improvements in operational efficiency, cash flow, and a commitment to high dividends, suggesting a strong investment opportunity [13]
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