业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com ⚫ 电力： 1~2 月水电发电增速显著，第二产业拉动用电增长。2026 年 1-2 月发电量 15718 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.1%，其中火力发电 10539 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.3%；水 力发电 1560 亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.8%。总体而言，1-2 月份规上工业火电由降转增， 水电增速加快，核电、风电、太阳能发电增速放缓。2026 年初发电量与增速同比提升， 主要是因为上年同期基数较低。而且阶段性气温因素，1-2 月的冷暖波动较大带动采暖负 荷上升，提升电力需求的强度。电力生产由 2025 年初的低位逐步恢复到正常增速区间。 2026 年 1-2 月全社会用电量 16546 亿 ...

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 23 日 1-2 月发用电开局良好 中东局势升 级欧亚气价上涨 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(26/3/16~26/3/20) 行 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 公用事业 ⚫ 电力： 1~2 月水电发电增速显著，第二产业拉动用电增长。2026 年 1-2 月发电量 15718 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.1%，其中火力发电 10539 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.3%；水 力发电 1560 亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.8%。总体而言，1-2 月份规上工业火电由降转增， 水电增速加快，核电、风电、太阳能发电增速放缓。 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 固废行业巡礼 增长提速与估值重塑：炉渣、绿汽、算电协同 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-22 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]陈龙 SAC 执证号：S0260523030004 021-38003623 shchenlong@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郭鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 SFC CE No. BNX688 021-38003655 guopeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 荣凌琪 SAC 执证号：S0260523120006 021-38003686 ronglingqi@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈舒心 SAC 执证号：S0260524030004 021-38003790 -14% -5% 4% 12% 21% 30% 03/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 01/26 03/26 环保 沪深300 shchenshuxi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental protection sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for these industries [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on the construction of a new energy system, emphasizing the integration of various energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power [3][6]. - It notes the recent slight decline in global gas prices due to geopolitical tensions affecting LNG supply, particularly from Qatar, while also mentioning the stable domestic supply in the U.S. [14][20]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas companies, reflecting a diversified approach to energy investments [12][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, promoting non-fossil energy sources and setting ambitious installation targets for nuclear, offshore wind, and pumped storage by 2030 [3][7]. - The plan aims to enhance the efficiency and resilience of the power system, optimize energy flow, and accelerate the development of smart grids and new energy storage solutions [6][8]. 2. Gas - The report discusses the impact of ongoing Middle Eastern tensions on global gas prices, with specific price data indicating fluctuations in various markets, including a 10.27% increase in U.S. Henry Hub spot prices [14][15]. - It highlights the current state of LNG prices in Northeast Asia, which have decreased by 13.33% recently, while also noting the overall supply constraints due to geopolitical factors [28][32]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and environmental sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the reporting period, while the gas sector lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report mentions recent developments in energy safety and the approval of new energy storage projects in Inner Mongolia, indicating ongoing investments in energy infrastructure [39][42]. - It also highlights significant projects such as the completion of the first unit of the "Hualong One" nuclear power plant in Zhejiang, marking a milestone in China's nuclear energy development [45][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the energy sector, particularly in the context of the new energy system construction outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][7]. Core Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, promoting a multi-energy approach including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, with specific capacity targets set for 2025 and 2030 [3][8]. - Natural gas prices have shown slight declines due to easing panic premiums and geopolitical tensions affecting supply, with various price metrics reflecting this trend [16][22]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [13][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines a comprehensive strategy for carbon emission control and the development of a new energy infrastructure, focusing on the integration of various energy sources [3][7]. - Specific targets for nuclear power, offshore wind, and pumped storage have been established, aiming for significant capacity increases by 2030 [8][9]. 2. Natural Gas - Ongoing geopolitical tensions have impacted LNG supply from Qatar, leading to fluctuations in global gas prices, with recent data showing a decrease in prices across various markets [16][22]. - The report highlights the importance of U.S. domestic supply and demand dynamics, noting that the U.S. has reached its LNG export capacity limit, which contributes to price stability [16][30]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the utility, electricity, and environmental sectors have outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the gas sector has underperformed [39]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the approval of new energy projects and the establishment of safety protocols in energy production, emphasizing the importance of safety in the energy sector [42][45]. - The report mentions significant projects in renewable energy, including the construction of large-scale wind and solar facilities, which are expected to contribute to the energy transition [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides various investment recommendations for specific sectors and companies within the energy and environmental sectors. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices, particularly affecting Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [13][22][36]. - The report outlines several investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [11][12][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" introduces a dual control system for carbon emissions, aiming for carbon peak and neutrality, and emphasizes the development of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to green energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [10]. 2. Gas Sector - The Middle East tensions have caused a rapid increase in gas prices, with significant weekly changes noted in various markets, such as a 116.35% increase in Northeast Asia LNG prices [13][22][36]. - The report highlights that the current geopolitical situation has led to a more abrupt price increase compared to previous cycles, with a potential for shorter duration [36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Recommended companies include Datang Power A+H and JianTou Energy, particularly in regions with high computational demand [11][12]. - Hydropower: Companies like Guotou Power and Changjiang Power are favored due to expected improvements in financial metrics [12]. - Nuclear Power: Focus on China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, with a projected increase in approved units [12]. - Green Energy: Companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new energy market rules enhance project stability [12]. - Natural Gas: Companies like Kunlun Energy and China Gas are highlighted for their potential in a favorable pricing environment [12][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental sectors, particularly in electricity and natural gas [3][46]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [10][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [15][24]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across various energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [13][14][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Implementation of Dual Control on Carbon Emissions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a comprehensive approach to achieving carbon neutrality, emphasizing the need for a robust incentive mechanism and specific tasks related to energy, industry, and lifestyle [10][11][12]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to renewable energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [12]. 2. Natural Gas: Impact of Middle Eastern Conflicts on Prices - Natural gas prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu and European prices experiencing significant increases [15][24]. - The report notes that the current supply constraints, particularly from Qatar, have led to a more pronounced price increase compared to previous cycles [42][44]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on LNG traders and unconventional gas resource companies that benefit from high price environments [44]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and gas sectors have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, while the environmental sector has lagged [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the implementation of new standards for ecological industrial parks and competitive pricing mechanisms for renewable energy projects in Zhejiang [56]. - Notable company announcements include significant investments in waste-to-energy projects and renewable energy initiatives [57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [2] Core Insights - The government work report for 2026 emphasizes the need for a 17% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP and a 3.8% reduction in total carbon emissions, marking a shift towards dual control of carbon emissions [12][14] - The report highlights the increasing demand for green energy and biofuels, particularly biodiesel, driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [5][21] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the recycling and green energy sectors, such as biofuels and green methanol, as potential investment opportunities [5][13] Summary by Sections Government Work Report - The 2026 government work report sets higher targets for carbon emissions reduction and introduces a national low-carbon transition fund to support hydrogen and green fuel development [12][15] - The report indicates that 2026 will be the first year of formal carbon assessments for local governments [12][14] Biodiesel Market - The average export price of UCO (Used Cooking Oil) in 2025 was 7,742 CNY/ton, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [21] - UCO export volume for 2025 was 2.7558 million tons, with a 6.6% decrease compared to the previous year [21] - The report notes that the price of UCO has been on an upward trend, reaching 8,125.54 CNY/ton by December 2025 [21] Carbon Market and Policies - The report tracks developments in the carbon market, noting a recent trading volume of 56.05 million tons and a closing price of 81.85 CNY/ton [36][39] - It highlights the establishment of a comprehensive recycling system for retired solar panels, aiming for a cumulative utilization of 250,000 tons by 2027 [34] Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends monitoring companies such as Langkun Technology, Shanhai Environment, and Huanxin Co., which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for biofuels and recycling [5][33]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on green fuel, green electricity, natural gas, CCUS, renewable resources, carbon monitoring, and zero-carbon parks as key investment opportunities [4][7][43]. Core Insights - The transition to a dual carbon control system is urgent, with the need to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and a 65% reduction in carbon intensity compared to 2005 levels by 2030 [4][11]. - The establishment of a comprehensive carbon management system is underway, integrating carbon evaluation and market mechanisms [4][21]. - The path to implementation emphasizes energy transition and efficiency improvements, with pilot projects for zero-carbon factories and parks leading the way [4][44]. Summary by Sections Policy Transition - The shift from energy consumption control to carbon emission control is highlighted, with a focus on dual carbon control [6][8]. - The government has outlined a comprehensive policy framework for carbon peak and neutrality, emphasizing the need for a robust carbon management system [12][14]. System Construction - A dual approach combining administrative measures and market mechanisms is being developed, including carbon evaluation and a national carbon market [21][24]. - The national carbon market has expanded to include key industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting [24][30]. Implementation Path - The report outlines a clear path for energy transition, focusing on green energy supply, energy efficiency improvements, and the establishment of zero-carbon factories and parks [4][44]. - Key tasks include developing renewable energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing carbon management systems [46][50].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the power sector, particularly in regions benefiting from rapid computational development [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively, leading to a significant rise in the proportion of clean energy [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of coal power as a stabilizing force in the energy system, providing reliable support for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure, which is crucial for the development of AI and the digital economy [9]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise in 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price projected at $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year. This increase is attributed to geopolitical factors, extreme weather, and changes in supply-demand fundamentals [35][36]. - The report emphasizes the potential for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, with subsidies of up to 13 RMB/kg, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and methanol industry [1]. Summary by Sections Power Sector - The installed capacity in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a significant increase in clean energy sources [4]. - The contribution of coal power to electricity generation remains substantial, accounting for 65% of the total output despite its 40% share in installed capacity [4][5]. - The "East Data West Calculation" project aims to enhance the computational network across various regions, leading to higher electricity consumption growth in provinces like Guizhou and Zhejiang [6][9]. Natural Gas - Global natural gas prices are expected to rise, with the US Henry Hub price forecasted to increase significantly due to various geopolitical and supply-demand factors [35][36]. - The report notes that the LNG supply in Northeast Asia is currently stable, but geopolitical tensions could lead to price volatility [30][36]. Environmental and Renewable Energy - The report discusses the potential for green hydrogen development in Yunnan, supported by government subsidies, which could enhance the economic viability of hydrogen projects [1]. - The report recommends several companies in the renewable energy sector, including new energy operators and integrated gas traders, as potential investment opportunities [1][36].