永兴股份 20251103 摘要 永新股份 2025 年三季度业绩增长 24%，较上半年提升 15 个百分点， 得益于经营要素回归平稳及垃圾资源价值提升，推动现金流增长。垃圾 焚烧发电项目收益率受宏观经济影响小，提升经营效率是关键。 永新股份采用 BOO 模式，经营期限长，谈判展期合约具优势。但目前 1.3 倍 PB 未体现出相对于瀚蓝环境、绿色动力等同行的溢价，主要因 ROE 水平较低。未来广州区位优势将带来垃圾量增长和产能负荷率提升。 永新股份 2026 年预计通过供热改造推动增长，若广州算力需求增加， 公司在供能方面将更具优势。城镇垃圾和供热支撑业绩，绿电直连提供 额外支撑，预计明年业绩增速将保持双位数以上。 永新股份今年前三季度收入同比增长 16%，归母净利润同比增长 15% 至 7.46 亿元，加权平均 ROE 提升至 7.06%，毛利率提升至 43.8%。 单三季度归母净利润同比增速 24%，财务费用同比下降 19%。 永新股份维持 60%以上高分红比例，今年动态股息率为 3.6%。受益于 广州优质区位及高吨发电补贴，公司对国补依赖度低，应收账款周期短， 自由现金流持续增加，未来有进一步提高分红比 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting potential growth opportunities in renewable energy and natural gas consumption [4][8]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading prices in Q3 compared to Q1. The total issuance of green power certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable [7][8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price reaching a six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [9][11]. - The report anticipates an increase in natural gas consumption in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and expected higher heating demand from a potential La Niña phenomenon [30][31]. Summary by Sections Electricity - The average trading price of green certificates increased by 210% in Q3 compared to Q1. The issuance of green certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable, indicating a robust market growth [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for further development of the green certificate market and the introduction of regulations to enhance renewable energy consumption [4][7]. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the U.S. Henry Hub spot price was $3.57/mmBtu, marking an 11.16% increase week-on-week. In contrast, European gas prices showed a decline, with the TTF spot price at €30.35/MWh, down 5.42% [9][10]. - The report notes a decrease in China's apparent natural gas consumption in September 2025, but anticipates a rebound in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and increased heating demand [30][31]. - The LNG national ex-factory price in China rose to 4407 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.11% increase week-on-week, driven by rising demand ahead of the heating season [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market conditions: - Hydropower: Focus on Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power due to favorable hydrological conditions [8]. - Green Power: Attention to New Energy, Funiu Co., Longyuan Power, and China Resources Power for their stable returns [8]. - Nuclear Power: Recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power due to ongoing approvals for new units [8]. - Thermal Power: Companies like Guodian Power and Huadian International are highlighted for improved profitability due to falling coal prices [8]. - Gas Power: Recommendations for Guangzhou Development and Shenzhen Energy based on expected stability in profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for various sectors including hydropower, green electricity, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas power [4][9][44]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading price in Q3 compared to Q1 [8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the US Henry Hub spot price reaching a near six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [11][12]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in gas consumption growth in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and high demand expectations, despite a 1.6% year-on-year decline in September gas consumption [32][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - In September 2025, 229 million green electricity certificates were issued, with 68.86% being tradable [4][8]. - The report highlights the improvement in market mechanisms and the growing demand for renewable energy consumption [8]. 2. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the US Henry Hub spot price increased by 11.16% week-on-week, while European prices showed a decline [11][12]. - The report notes a 1.6% year-on-year decrease in national gas consumption in September, with expectations for growth in Q4 2025 due to favorable weather conditions [32][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include hydropower companies such as Guotou Power and Chuanwei Energy, green electricity firms like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power, and gas companies including Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [9][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in the gas sector due to declining costs and rising demand [33][44].

2025年三季度，永兴股份营业收入为32.5亿元，行业排名13/35，行业第一名浙富控股营收161.55亿元，第 二名飞南资源营收107.07亿元，行业平均数为33.34亿元，中位数为24亿元。净利润为7.58亿元，行业排名 9/35，行业第一名伟明环保净利润22.38亿元，第二名瀚蓝环境净利润18.28亿元，行业平均数为3.69亿元， 中位数为2.13亿元。 资产负债率高于同业平均，毛利率高于同业平均 偿债能力方面，2025年三季度永兴股份资产负债率为57.27%，去年同期为57.56%，高于行业平均的 50.06%。从盈利能力看，2025年三季度毛利率为43.82%，去年同期为43.01%，高于行业平均的25.02%。 总经理谈强薪酬145.41万元，同比增加44.05万元 永兴股份控股股东为广州环保投资集团有限公司，实际控制人为广州市人民政府。董事长张雪球，1966年 1月出生，研究生学历，历任广州发展集团副总经理兼董秘等职，现任广州环保投资集团党委书记、董事 长，公司董事。总经理谈强，1972年1月出生，本科学历，历任广州永兴环保能源总经理等职，2024年薪 酬145.41万，2023年为101.36 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown accelerated growth in its third-quarter performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit driven by higher waste processing volumes and contributions from acquisitions [4] - The company is recognized as a leader in solid waste treatment in Guangzhou, with stable profitability in its main business and potential for upward performance elasticity due to increased capacity utilization from co-incineration of aged waste [4] - The company has successfully reduced financial costs and improved operational efficiency, leading to a notable decrease in financial expenses [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 746 million yuan, up 15% [1] - In the third quarter alone, the company reported operating revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.36%, and a net profit of 284 million yuan, up 25.61% [2] - The company's gross profit margin was 43.82%, with a net profit margin of 23.33%, both showing slight improvements from the previous quarter [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 4.13 billion yuan, 4.39 billion yuan, and 4.75 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 932 million yuan, 1.06 billion yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan for the same years [4]

截至9月30日，永兴股份股东户数2.94万，较上期减少3.42%；人均流通股8174股，较上期增加3.54%。 2025年1月-9月，永兴股份实现营业收入32.50亿元，同比增长16.30%；归母净利润7.46亿元，同比增长 15.00%。 分红方面，永兴股份A股上市后累计派现10.08亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，永兴股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股851.48万股，为新进股东。工银红利优享混合A（005833）位居第六大流通股东，持股 675.13万股，相比上期增加160.63万股。易方达环保主题混合A（001856）位居第七大流通股东，持股 478.13万股，相比上期增加69.32万股。南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第九大流通股东，持股246.87 万股，相比上期减少2.26万股。 融券方面，永兴股份10月29日融券偿还200.00股，融券卖出500.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 8275.00元；融券余量3700.00股，融券余额6.12万元，低于近一年10%分位水平，处于低位。 资料显示，广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司位于广东省广州 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 750 million yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, growing 23.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, which is a 25.6% increase year-on-year [2][4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s operating gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points, while the expense ratio decreased by 3.0 percentage points in the first three quarters. The comprehensive gross margin stood at 43.8% [2][11]. - Capital expenditure continued to decline, with cash flow remaining healthy. The capital expenditure for the first three quarters was 370 million yuan, a decrease of 14.0% year-on-year [11]. Business Drivers - The significant growth in performance is attributed to the accelerated co-incineration of aged waste and the acquisition of subsidiaries. The company has actively expanded its waste treatment services, significantly enhancing the capacity utilization of its waste-to-energy projects [11]. - The company signed a cooperation agreement for the excavation of aged waste in Guangzhou, aiming to process 2.37 million tons over approximately three years, which is expected to sustain performance in the coming years [11]. Market Positioning - The company possesses several advantages over its peers, including high-quality project locations, low national subsidy ratios, and high calorific values, which contribute to excellent cash flow performance [11]. - The company’s projects are primarily based on government procurement services, which provide a quasi-perpetual operating model, suggesting a premium in DCF valuation compared to traditional BOT models [11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 940 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.12 billion yuan, respectively. The current market capitalization corresponds to PE ratios of 15.6x, 14.0x, and 13.1x for the respective years [11].

Market Overview - The environmental governance sector increased by 0.53% on October 29, with Shanghai Xiba leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33, up 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38, up 1.95% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the environmental governance sector included: - Shanghai Xiba (603200) with a closing price of 92.86, up 6.64% [1] - Baolijie (920802) at 18.51, up 6.20% [1] - Haitan Co. (603759) at 11.00, up 5.87% [1] - Fulongma (603686) at 25.57, up 5.49% [1] - Huicheng Environmental (300779) at 161.07, up 5.29% [1] - Conversely, the following stocks experienced declines: - Haixia Environmental (603817) at 7.17, down 7.00% [2] - ST Taihe (605081) at 11.23, down 4.99% [2] - Zhuojin Co. (688701) at 9.22, down 4.55% [2] Capital Flow - The environmental governance sector saw a net inflow of 339 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 178 million yuan [2][3] - Major stocks with significant capital inflows included: - Fulongma (603686) with a net inflow of 3.12 billion yuan [3] - Shanghai Xiba (603200) with a net inflow of 196 million yuan [3] - Huicheng Environmental (300779) with a net inflow of 116 million yuan [3] - Stocks with notable net outflows included: - Fulongma (603686) with a net outflow of 1.11 billion yuan from retail investors [3] - Shanghai Xiba (603200) with a net outflow of 4.51 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The company, Guangzhou HuanTou Yongxing Group Co., Ltd. (Yongxing Co., 601033), reported a robust growth in its performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with both operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders showing double-digit year-on-year increases [1][2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yongxing Co. achieved operating revenue of 3.25 billion yuan, representing a 16.3% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 746 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [1] - The third quarter of 2025 marked the highest revenue quarter in the company's history, with operating revenue of 1.186 billion yuan, up 23.36% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items for the third quarter was 275 million yuan, showing a 27.38% increase compared to the previous year [1] Growth Drivers - The revenue growth in 2025 is primarily attributed to the significant improvement in the capacity utilization of waste incineration power generation projects [2] - The company enhanced the collaborative disposal of existing waste, leading to an increase in the total amount of waste processed and the volume of waste incineration power generation [2] - The acquisition of controlling shares in Xinzhou Jiejin Company during the first half of the year has also contributed positively to the company's performance [2] Debt Management - Concurrently with the third-quarter report, Yongxing Co. announced plans to publicly issue corporate bonds not exceeding 3 billion yuan to optimize its debt structure and meet funding needs for further development [2] - The financial expenses for the first three quarters decreased by over 49 million yuan compared to the same period last year, supporting the growth of profit indicators [2] - The ongoing optimization of the company's debt structure is expected to provide stable financial support for performance growth and enhance the company's financial strength for continued business expansion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yongxing Co., Ltd. reported a year-on-year increase in total operating revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential in the industry [1] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters reached 3.25 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.3% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 746 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 0.83 yuan [1]