联系人 莫龙庭 (8621)23297818× molt@swsresearch.com 市政运营表现稳健,设备表现分 2025 年 10 月 12 日 时代 （ ） 苏研究报 研究支持 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 申万环保行业 2025Q3 业绩前瞻 本期投资提示: 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 v的角幕而 证券分析师 草龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com | | 表 1: 环保行业 2025 年 Q3 业绩前瞻 | | | | | = 商品 | | 2025/10/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业务分类 | 股票代码 | 公司 | 市值 | | Q1-3 归母净利(百万元) | | | 单 Q3 归母净利 (百万元) | | | | | | (亿元) | 2401-3 | 2501-3E | yoy | 24Q3 | 25Q3E | yoy | | 市政水务 | 3 ...

本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 研究支持 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 联系人 莫龙庭 (8621)23297818× molt@swsresearch.com 市政运营表现稳健，设备表现分化 看好 ——申万环保行业 2025Q3 业绩前瞻 行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 10 月 12 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 ⚫ 市政水务：整体运营平稳，工程业务有所下滑。市政供水及污水整体运营稳定，部分公司受益战略 扩张及污水处理价格调整，同时污水工程则整体需求下降，工程业务预计有所下滑，预计 2025 年 Q1-3 归母净利同比整体平稳，其中天源环保同比+18%，兴蓉环境+5%，洪城环境+3%，中山公 用+32%。 ⚫ 垃圾焚烧：整体平稳，历史电费收入确认、折旧增加、收并购等带来分化。2025 年以来垃圾焚烧 项目新建及招标整体进一步放缓，行业运营整体稳步提升，尤其是叠加蒸汽销售大力拓展，板块运 营持续强化。但鉴于不同公司承接项目不同、历史电费确认收入、新增产能带来的折旧增加、建造 收入下滑、会计准则调整等原因而有不同表现，主要公司 2025Q1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Guangzhou's plan to build a "waste-free city" over the next decade, focusing on the reduction, resource utilization, and harmless treatment of legacy waste [1][2] - Yongxing Co., as a subsidiary of Guangzhou Environmental Investment Group, has significantly increased its waste treatment business this year, processing over 800,000 tons of legacy waste in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [1] - The increase in waste processing is primarily attributed to the excavation project at the Xingfeng landfill, which is expected to handle up to 2.37 million tons of legacy waste [1] Group 2 - Guangzhou has a substantial amount of historical legacy waste, with major landfills like Xingfeng and Huadu holding approximately 48.48 million tons and 7.8 million tons of waste, respectively [2] - The city plans to select closed landfills as pilot sites for legacy waste management and land redevelopment [2] - The construction of a "waste-free city" is expected to activate market opportunities and policy support, fulfilling the demand for the reduction, resource utilization, and harmless treatment of legacy waste [2]

Group 1 - The "Beautiful Guangzhou Construction Planning Outline (2025-2035)" aims to promote the treatment of legacy waste, focusing on "reduction, resource utilization, and harmlessness" of both legacy and stockpiled waste [1] - Guangzhou has a significant amount of historical legacy waste, with major landfills like Xingfeng and Huadu holding approximately 4,848 million tons and 780 million tons of waste respectively, along with additional landfills totaling about 1,856 million tons [1] - The city plans to select closed landfills as pilot sites for stockpiled waste management and land redevelopment [1] Group 2 - The construction of a "waste-free city" is crucial for advancing ecological civilization and aligns with the dual carbon goals, as landfills are a major source of methane emissions and occupy valuable urban land [2] - According to the 2025 semi-annual report from Yongxing Co., the company processed over 800,000 tons of stockpiled waste in the first half of the year, surpassing the total for 2024, contributing to stable growth in incineration and power generation [2] - The increase in stockpiled waste processing for Yongxing Co. is primarily from the excavation project at Xingfeng landfill, which is expected to handle up to 2,370,000 tons of stockpiled waste [2] - The comprehensive "waste-free city" initiative is expected to activate market opportunities and policy support, fulfilling the demand for waste treatment [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In August, the electricity consumption growth rate in the secondary industry increased, contributing the largest increment to total electricity consumption, accounting for 59% of the total increase [3][7] - The total electricity consumption in August reached 10,154 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3][6] - The manufacturing sector saw a record monthly growth rate for the year, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing electricity consumption growing by 9.1%, surpassing the average manufacturing growth rate by approximately 4.6 percentage points [3][7] Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: August Secondary Industry Consumption Growth - The total electricity consumption in August was 10,154 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3][6] - The first industry consumed 164 billion kWh (9.7% growth), the second industry consumed 5,981 billion kWh (5.0% growth), the third industry consumed 2,046 billion kWh (7.2% growth), and residential consumption was 1,963 billion kWh (2.4% growth) [3][8] - The secondary industry contributed the most to the total electricity consumption increase, with a significant growth in manufacturing, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing [6][7] 2. Gas: Supply and Demand Stability - Global gas prices have shown narrow fluctuations, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu, a weekly increase of 0.17% [16][19] - The LNG national ex-factory price was 4,016 yuan/ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 0.07% [16][36] - The report suggests a positive outlook for city gas companies due to cost reductions and improved profitability [38] 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility and environmental protection sectors underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, while the electric equipment sector outperformed [40][42] 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights recent government initiatives aimed at promoting high-quality development in energy equipment, focusing on enhancing the efficiency of energy conversion equipment and advancing renewable energy technologies [49] - Key announcements from companies include significant contract wins and strategic investments aimed at enhancing operational capabilities and market positioning [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, recommending specific companies for investment based on their performance and market conditions [3][16][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in August, the total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The second industry contributed the largest increase, accounting for 59% of the total electricity increment [3][8][9]. - The report notes that global gas prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu and the TTF spot price at €32.15/MWh as of September 26 [18][19]. - The report emphasizes the stable growth in electricity consumption driven by high temperatures and government policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector - In August, the second industry saw a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% and contributing 59% to the total electricity increment [3][9]. - The manufacturing sector achieved a record monthly growth rate, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing, which grew by 9.1% year-on-year [9][10]. - The report recommends investments in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, and thermal power companies, citing favorable conditions for growth and profitability [16][17]. 2. Gas Sector - The report indicates that the supply-demand dynamics for gas remain stable, with slight fluctuations in global gas prices. The LNG price in Northeast Asia decreased by 2.61% to $11.20/mmBtu [18][19]. - It highlights the steady increase in U.S. natural gas inventories and the impact of mild weather on heating and cooling demands, leading to low price volatility [21][27]. - The report suggests focusing on integrated gas companies and city gas firms that are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profitability [41][42]. 3. Market Performance Review - The report notes that the public utility and environmental sectors underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, while the power equipment sector outperformed [43][44]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government initiatives aim to enhance the quality of energy equipment and promote the development of renewable energy sources [52]. - The report includes updates on major companies' announcements, including contract wins and strategic investments, which are expected to positively impact their future performance [52][53]. 5. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the public utility and environmental sectors, indicating their market positions and potential for growth [54].

Company Overview - Full Name: Guangzhou HuanTou Yongxing Group Co., Ltd [1] - Abbreviation: Yongxing Co., Ltd [1] - Stock Code: 601033.SH [1] - IPO Application Date: September 30, 2022 [1] - Listing Date: January 18, 2024 [1] - Listing Board: Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board [1] - Industry: Ecological Protection and Environmental Governance [1] - IPO Sponsoring Institution: CITIC Securities [1] - IPO Underwriters: Guotai Junan Securities, CITIC Securities [1] - IPO Legal Advisor: Beijing Zhonglun Law Firm [1] - IPO Audit Institution: Dahua Certified Public Accountants (Special General Partnership) [1] IPO Performance - Average Days from Application to Listing: 629.45 days for 2024 A-share companies; Yongxing's listing cycle is 475 days, which is below the overall average [2] - Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees: 84.66 million yuan, with a commission rate of 3.48%, lower than the overall average of 7.71% [3] - First Day Stock Performance: Stock price increased by 37.10% compared to the issue price [3] - Stock Performance in Three Months: Stock price decreased by 2.84% compared to the issue price [4] Financial Metrics - Issuance Price-Earnings Ratio: Yongxing's issuance P/E ratio is 21.76 times, which is 120.62% of the industry average of 18.04 times [5] - Actual Fundraising: Expected fundraising of 4.599 billion yuan, with actual fundraising of 2.430 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 47.16% [6] - Short-term Performance Post-Listing: In 2024, the company's operating income increased by 6.45% year-on-year, net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.67% year-on-year, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses increased by 15.57% year-on-year [7] Evaluation and Scoring - Abandonment Rate: 0.47% [8] - Total Score for IPO Project: 89.5 points, classified as B-level [8] - Negative Factors Affecting Score: Disclosure quality needs improvement, stock price decline in three months, significant reduction in actual fundraising amount, and abandonment rate of 0.47% [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The report highlights that in August 2025, the average daily power generation exceeded 30 billion kilowatt-hours for the first time, with a total industrial power generation of 936.3 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [4][7][53] - The report emphasizes the continuous improvement in the power generation structure, with significant contributions from clean energy sources such as wind and solar power, amidst ongoing dual carbon policies and the development of a new power system [8][9][12] Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation - In August 2025, the total power generation reached 936.3 billion kilowatt-hours, with a daily average of 30.2 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 1.6% increase year-on-year [4][7] - The breakdown of power generation types shows that thermal power generation increased by 1.7%, nuclear power by 5.9%, wind power by 20.2%, and solar power by 15.9%, while hydropower decreased by 10.1% [9][12] - Wind power contributed the most to the increase in power generation, adding 12.4 billion kilowatt-hours compared to the same month last year [8][9] 2. Natural Gas - The report indicates a stable supply-demand balance in the natural gas market, with global gas prices experiencing slight fluctuations [18][19] - As of September 19, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price was $2.89/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decrease of 1.80% [19][21] - The report suggests that the LNG prices in Northeast Asia remained stable at $11.50/mmBtu, with expectations of a further decline in prices as summer heat waves end [18][35] 3. Investment Analysis - Recommendations for investment include: - Hydropower: Favorable financial conditions due to interest rate cuts, with suggested companies being Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power [16] - Green Energy: Increased stability in returns for renewable energy operators, with a focus on companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [16] - Nuclear Power: Continued approval of new units, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [16] - Thermal Power: Improved profitability due to falling coal prices, with recommendations for Guodian Power and Huaneng International [16] - Gas Utilities: Favorable conditions for city gas companies, with recommendations for Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for these industries [4]. Core Insights - In August, the average daily power generation exceeded 30 billion kilowatt-hours for the first time, with total industrial power generation reaching 936.3 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [9][57]. - The report highlights the continued growth of thermal power and the significant contribution of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power, to the overall power generation increase [10][11]. - Global gas prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a stable supply-demand balance in the market, particularly in the U.S. and Europe [20][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation - In August, the total power generation was 936.3 billion kilowatt-hours, with a daily average of 30.2 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 1.6% increase year-on-year [9][57]. - The breakdown of power generation types shows thermal power at 6,274 billion kilowatt-hours (up 1.7%), hydropower at 1,479 billion kilowatt-hours (down 10.1%), nuclear power at 645 billion kilowatt-hours (up 5.9%), wind power at 738 billion kilowatt-hours (up 20.2%), and solar power at 538 billion kilowatt-hours (up 15.9%) [11][58]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth of renewable energy, with wind and solar power showing significant year-on-year increases of 20.2% and 15.9%, respectively [10][11]. 2. Natural Gas - As of September 19, the Henry Hub spot price was $2.89/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decrease of 1.80%, while the TTF spot price in Europe remained stable at €32.00/MWh [20][21]. - The report notes that U.S. natural gas production remains high, contributing to a stable supply-demand balance and low price fluctuations [23][29]. - The LNG ex-factory price in China was 4,019 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.84%, indicating a softening market due to weak domestic demand [41][44]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For hydropower, the report recommends companies like Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power due to stable growth and financial benefits from interest rate cuts [18]. - In the renewable energy sector, companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Funi Co. are highlighted for their stable returns and high profitability [18]. - The report suggests focusing on integrated natural gas traders like New Hope Energy and Shenzhen Gas, as well as city gas companies benefiting from cost reductions [44].

证券代码：601033 证券简称：永兴股份 公告编号：2025-035 广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司 关于参加 2025 年广东辖区投资者网上集体 接待日活动的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"）将参加由广东证监局、广东上市公司协会联合举办的"向新提 质 价值领航--2025年广东辖区投资者集体接待日暨辖区上市公司中报业绩说明 会"，现将相关事项公告如下： 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演"网站 （https://rs.p5w.net）参与本次互动交流，活动时间为2025年9月19日（周五） 15:30~17:00。届时公司高管将在线就2025年半年度业绩、公司治理、发展战 略、投资者回报等投资者关心的问题，与投资者进行沟通与交流，欢迎广大投 资者踊跃参与。 特此公告。 广州环投永兴集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 9 月 17 日 1 ...