GoerTek(SZ:002241)2025-11-05 10:58Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the AI glasses market, particularly focusing on Meta's performance and its impact on the supply chain, including companies like Goertek and Sunny Optical. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Sales Performance of Meta AI Glasses: - The new Ray-Ban Meta glasses and Oakley Meta Vanguards are performing well, with the Ray-Ban display glasses selling out within 48 hours [1][2] - Reality Labs revenue increased by 74% YoY to US$470 million, driven by strong demand for AI glasses and stocking up of Quest headsets ahead of the holiday season [1][2] 2. Future Revenue Expectations: - Anticipated decline in 4Q25 revenue due to pull-forward stocking and a high base from the previous year, although this is partially offset by significant growth in AI glasses [1][2] 3. AI Glasses Shipment Growth: - 3Q25 global AI glasses shipments reached approximately 1.65 million units, a 370% YoY and 90% QoQ increase, with Meta accounting for 1.12 million units [3] - Meta's AI glasses shipments since launch in 4Q23 have approached 4 million units, with 2.3-2.4 million units shipped in the first nine months of 2025 [3] 4. Production Forecast Adjustments: - Meta has raised its production forecast for 2025/26 to 12 million/30 million+ units, up from previous estimates of 10 million/20 million [3] 5. Beneficiaries of AI Glasses Market: - Goertek and Sunny Optical are identified as key beneficiaries of the AI glasses market, with Goertek gaining market share in new AI glasses series and Sunny Optical continuing to supply camera modules [1][3] Additional Important Insights 1. Market Dynamics: - Other brands in the AI glasses market have also seen significant growth, with some brands experiencing a 1667% YoY increase in shipments [3] 2. Valuation Insights: - Goertek's target price is set at Rmb38, based on a 28.2x 2026E P/E, reflecting stabilizing AirPods shipments and AI smart glass demand [5] - Sunny Optical's target price is set at HK$103, based on a 23x 2026E P/E, driven by a new camera cycle in smart vehicles and XR [7] 3. Risks to Consider: - Key risks for Goertek include lower-than-expected VR/AR penetration rates and increased competition leading to ASP pressures [6] - For Sunny Optical, risks include slower shipments of domestic-brand smartphones and high inventory levels impacting volume growth [8]