Diageo(DEO) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1, organic net sales were flat, with reported net sales of $4.9 billion down 2.2% year-over-year, primarily impacted by the disposal of Guinness Nigeria and the Shiraz North America transaction [6][7][10] - Organic volume growth was 2.9%, offset by a negative price mix of 2.8%, largely due to the adverse impact of Chinese white spirits [6][10] - The company updated its fiscal guidance, now expecting organic net sales growth to be flat to slightly down for the fiscal year, with organic operating profit growth projected in the low to mid-single-digit range [13][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America saw organic net sales decline by 2.7%, with U.S. spirits down 4.1%, while Diageo Beer Company grew by 9.2% [7][10] - Europe experienced organic net sales growth of 3.5%, driven by strong performance in Guinness Draft and spirits, particularly in Turkey and the Middle East [9][10] - In Asia-Pacific, organic net sales declined by 7.5%, significantly affected by the downturn in Chinese white spirits, which impacted regional net sales by approximately 13% [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) reported organic net sales growth of 10.9%, led by strong performance in Brazil [10] - Africa showed organic sales growth of 8.9%, with broad growth across East Africa and Southwest and Central Africa [10] - The tequila category in North America faced increased competitive pressure, leading to a decline in overall performance [29][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sharpening its strategy and implementing initiatives to drive growth across its portfolio, particularly through the Accelerate program [5][11] - There is an emphasis on improving commercial execution and optimizing trade spend, with a commitment to delivering $3 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2026 [11][16] - The company is also exploring selective disposals of non-core assets to enhance focus on core growth areas [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concern over the current performance, particularly in North America, and acknowledged the need for urgent actions to drive growth [4][5] - The economic environment is weighing on consumer sentiment, leading to a cautious outlook for the U.S. market [7][10] - Management remains confident in the long-term growth potential of the portfolio, particularly in RTDs and Guinness [17][18] Other Important Information - The company is making progress on cost efficiency and process simplification, which are expected to contribute positively to margins [11][48] - The impact of foreign exchange on reported sales was negligible during the quarter [6] - The company is committed to returning to its target leverage ratio range of 2.5-3 times by fiscal 2028 [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on U.S. market performance and guidance - Management acknowledged the complexities in the U.S. market, noting that net sales were ahead of depletions, with depletion NSV down about 7% [20][22] - The impact of tariff pre-buying and seasonality was discussed, with management indicating that the unwinding of these factors would not be material in Q2 [24][25] Question: Competitive pressure in the tequila category - Management highlighted increased competitive pressure in the tequila category, with consumers trading down and shifting preferences impacting performance [28][30] - The company is focusing on its portfolio, particularly Don Julio and Casamigos, to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [30][32] Question: EBIT guidance and margin support - Management expressed confidence in delivering low to mid-single-digit EBIT growth despite challenges, citing cost discipline and operational efficiencies as key factors [44][46] - Input costs, particularly for agave, were noted but not seen as a major factor in efficiencies [51][52] Question: A&P spend reduction and efficiency - Management clarified that A&P development spend was reduced by optimizing agency use and reallocating resources for better returns [56][58] - The focus remains on maintaining brand equity while improving marketing efficiency across markets [58][59] Question: Details on the Accelerate program - Management provided insights into the Accelerate program, emphasizing its role in driving savings and improving operational effectiveness [61][64] - The program aims to enhance decision-making speed and resource allocation across the organization [64][65] Question: Margin and operating leverage - Management confirmed that 40% of savings from the Accelerate program would be realized this year, ahead of previous guidance [69][70] - The impact of depletions and consumer behavior in North America was discussed, with management indicating that these factors would be managed throughout the year [71][74]