"对等关税"的不确定性在下降，但是特朗普才是最大的变数。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人厉梦颖 随着7月9日关税豁免期限临近，美国加快了谈判进程。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特近期表 示，美国与多个国家的贸易谈判已进入最后阶段，但相关协议的公布将推迟至《大美丽法案》通过后， 预计从7月4日起将陆续宣布一系列贸易协定。贝森特和卢特尼克也表示白宫预计在7月9日之前和多个 主要贸易伙伴敲定协议。 之前美国与其他国家的贸易谈判进展缓慢，主要原因在于美方诉求不够明确，阻碍了谈判进程。目前， 美国已逐步明确了对部分非美国家的具体要求，这些诉求能否得到满足将成为7月9日能否达成协议的 决定性因素。 一、美国在关税博弈中的诉求是什么？ 吸取历史教训，特朗普政府在本轮贸易谈判中运用了更具策略性的关税手段：一方面，通过维持10% 的基线关税来避免过度刺激贸易伙伴；另一方面，则将超过10%的附加关税作为谈判筹码，旨在迫使 盟友妥协，促使其扩大对美国商品的采购，同时又避免引发全面的报复性措施。 这种精准的关税调 控，既延续了关税作为威慑工具的效力，又有效规避了全面贸易对抗可能带来的风险。 美国扩大商品出口主要集中在 能源和农产品 领 ...

美国此次以"对等关税"作为谈判筹码，让贸易伙伴扩大对美国商品的采购、促进制造业回流、强化供应链安全，并 为美国企业营造更有利的全球经营环境。目前，印度、巴基斯坦、瑞士等国有望与美国达成贸易协议或贸易框架协议。 而欧盟、日本、韩国以及部分东盟国家仍在谈判之中，既有可能达成贸易协议，也有较大可能获得关税延期。尽管此 次"对等关税"的不确定性或许会降低，但特朗普政府仍握有 232 条款、301 条款等其他加征关税的工具，这意味着 未来的贸易政策依然充满高度不确定性。 风险提示 美国为了达成贸易协定去除不确定性，放松贸易谈判条件；非美国家为了尽快达成贸易协定，答应美国诉求；特朗普 政府对于未达成贸易协定的国家直接拉高关税。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 | 国家/地区 | 逆差（十亿美元） | 4月2日公布的对等关税 | 谈判进展 | 国家/地区 | | 逆差（十亿美元） 4月2日公布的对等关税 | 谈判进展 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国 | 295.40 | 34% | 贸易框架协议 | 老挝 | 0.76 | 48% | 尚未达成 ...

Group 1 - The premier beer and liquor company's stock has increased over 130% from Covid lows due to heightened drinking rates among captive indoor audiences [1] - The analysis focuses on identifying high-yield investment opportunities for individual investors, emphasizing the importance of expert research [1] Group 2 - The company has a beneficial long position in the shares of DEO, indicating confidence in its future performance [2]

Diageo plc (DEO) reported net sales data for third-quarter fiscal 2025 and issued other updates. On a reported basis, net sales of $4.4 billion jumped 2.9% year over year, due to organic growth, partly offset by foreign exchange headwinds and disposals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $4.1 billion.Organic net sales climbed 5.9% year over year, with robust organic volumes increasing 2.8% and favorable price/mix of 3.1%. Significant phasing gains are likely to have contributed almost 4% to ...

Core Concept - Captain Morgan Sliced is launching the "Play the Slice" campaign, encouraging fans to share their golf swings on social media for a chance to win a golf getaway [1][2]. Group 1: Campaign Details - The "Play the Slice" contest runs until the end of July, inviting participants aged 21 and over to post their golf slices on Instagram [1]. - The campaign is an official partnership with the Breezy Open, featuring events in Virginia, New Jersey, and Georgia, along with Sliced Lounges and rewards [2]. - The contest includes a grand prize of a golf trip for four to Hilton Head, South Carolina, which includes flights and accommodations [1]. Group 2: Brand Messaging - The campaign emphasizes a fun and relaxed approach to golf, celebrating all types of swings, including imperfect ones [4][5]. - Captain Morgan Sliced is marketed as a premium ready-to-drink beverage with a 5.8% ABV, available in Original and Sweet vs. Heat variety packs for a suggested retail price of $19.99 [5]. Group 3: Merchandise - A limited-edition "Play the Slice Collection" will be launched later this summer in collaboration with Pluto Golf, featuring various golf apparel and accessories [4]. Group 4: Company Background - Captain Morgan is the number one selling spiced rum in the U.S., with a diverse portfolio of flavored rums [8]. - Diageo, the parent company, is a global leader in beverage alcohol, with products sold in over 180 countries [11].

Diageo plc’s (DEO) recent stock performance reflects strong investor confidence in its fundamentals and strategic initiatives. The company’s shares have seen a 7.5% improvement in the past month, outpacing the industry’s 5.7% increase, the Consumer Staples sector’s 2.3% growth and the S&P 500’s 2.9% increase, suggesting resilience in a challenging market environment.DEO Stock's Price Performance In the Past MonthImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThis upward momentum can be attributed to several key dri ...

作 者丨肖夏 编 辑丨骆一帆 图 源丨新华社 美国对外关税一加再加，美国一线工人依然保不住工作。 再过一周，美国肯塔基州有百年历史的百富门制桶厂将正式关闭。这家威士忌木桶厂成立于 1 9 2 2年，二战期间曾一度被美国军方征用转为制造枪托、飞机胶合板。 战后这家制桶厂被老牌酒企百富门收购，过去多年是美国唯一由烈酒企业自营的威士忌木桶 厂。百富门是美国最大的烈酒集团，其历史可追溯至1 9世纪末，旗下最知名的莫过于美国本 土威士忌品牌杰克丹尼（J a c k Da n i e ls）。 如今这家百年老厂走入历史，2 1 0位当地员工只能另求出路。 百富门预计，关掉制桶厂每年可 省下至少7 0 0 0万美元成本，卖掉工厂的设备和资产还能回收超过3 0 0 0万美元 。 这是特朗普政府将关税政策武器化以来，全球酒业受到冲击的一个缩影。作为年规模 数千亿美元的全球酒业产业链的一部分，即使是美国企业和员工，也无法从关税争端 中幸免。 今年1月1 4日，特朗普正式就任前几天，百富门宣布了一轮旨在实现增长的战略举措，核心内 容 是 精 简 运 营 、 降 低 成 本 ， 计 划 全 球 裁 员 1 2% 。 包 括 上 述 ...

Accessibility Statement Skip Navigation This past weekend, The Crown Royal Rig touched down in Nashville timed to Kane Brown's tour stop in the Music City! The brand toasted to the partnership and brought the spirit of generosity to life through a series of elevated experiences. The weekend began with a backstage VIP takeover where guests 21+ were invited to receive exclusive concert merch, enjoy Kane Brown's signature Crown Royal cocktails, the Crown Royal Ranch Water and the Blackberry Ginger Lemonade,  ...

Diageo plc (DEO) has encountered a notable resistance level, prompting caution among investors from a technical standpoint. The company is trading below both the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), suggesting a bearish trend.Currently, at $107.57, DEO remains below its 200-day and 50-day SMA of $120.9 and $108.52, respectively, indicating a possible sustained downward trend.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDEO faced significant headwinds recently, underperforming the Zacks Beverages - Al ...

Today, the first powerful film made in partnership with Uncommon Creative Studio, "Guinness Presents: A Lovely Day," begins rolling out across TV, digital and social media. This anthem focuses on snapshots of Americans finding connection in everyday moments of togetherness, highlighting the simple joy of being with the people who matter most. Some of the 50 communities featured in "A Lovely Day" include: The Treme Brass Band: One of the most soulful groups in New Orleans. Between sets, this multigeneration ...