Hey. Hello and welcome to a bonus episode of the Morning Filter podcast. I'm Susan Jabinsky.Now, my co-host Dave Sakara and I have gotten a lot of questions from our audience about topics you'd like to hear more about, and we hear you. So, we're doing some bonus episodes of the podcast, sitting down with various Morning Star experts to discuss topics that you want to hear more about. If you have an idea for a bonus episode, you can send it to us at our email address, which is the morning filter@ morningstar ...

证券研究报告 乳制品：乳饮料&营养品&深加工业务表现亮眼 必选消费 海外看中国：消费恢复呈结构性分化 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 04 日│中国内地 动态点评 我们梳理了海外必选消费品公司中国区业务的表现：部分高端消费出现回暖 迹象，中档及大众价格带的改善尚不显著；外资品牌受损于弱需求环境下"去 品牌化"的行业趋势及对渠道变革相对滞后的反应速度，整体表现承压。部 分外资品牌在中国市场的复苏进度或落后于本土品牌，因此未必能作为行业 复苏的先行指标，多数公司在中国市场仍面临消费偏弱、渠道变革、竞争加 剧及库存压力等挑战，而实现增长的企业主要依靠自身品牌与渠道的 alpha。 烈酒：外部环境承压，中国区业务表现有所分化 海外烈酒龙头主要是高端洋酒品牌，多数公司中国区营收占比不高。受需求 萎缩和消费场景承压的影响，中国白酒市场目前仍处于深度调整期，与此相 对应，25 年至今海外烈酒巨头在中国市场业绩表现普遍承压，且下半年压 力较上半年多有所加剧。其中保乐力加和帝亚吉欧中国区业务均有拖累；人 头马君度销售额企稳（扣除春节效应），内部呈现结构分化。展望 26 年， 帝亚吉欧管理层整体保持谨慎态度，其管理层预计筑底过程 ...

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Core Insights - The 2026 edition of World Class India by Diageo showcases the strongest representation from Tier 2 cities, with Pune leading the list and other cities like Kochi, Coimbatore, Trivandrum, Indore, and Dehradun also well represented alongside metropolitan areas [1][3] - The competition highlights a growing confidence among bartenders, driven by sustained investment in education and skill-building, with a notable increase in female participation, now at 14% of the total shortlisted [1][3][6] Geographic Representation - The Top 100 features a diverse geographic spread, with the West leading with 27 bartenders, followed by the South with 22, North with 20, and East with 11; Sri Lanka and Nepal each contribute 10 bartenders [3] - This year marks the highest number of women bartenders in the platform's history, reflecting a year-on-year growth supported by initiatives like Diageo's 'Our Hive' [3][6] Bartending Trends - Bartenders are reinterpreting classic cocktails, with Sours being the most common starting point, followed by Highballs, Old Fashioneds, and Rob Roy-style cocktails [4][5] - Local ingredients and culinary approaches are increasingly influencing bartending techniques, showcasing a blend of classic structure with expressive flavors [2][4] Ingredients and Flavors - Key ingredients highlighted in the submissions include Banana, Jaggery, Toasted Rice, and Mushroom, with a focus on sweeteners, spices, and herbal elements [1][5][6] - Regional flavor preferences include Sours in North India, Highballs in South and East India, Rob Roy-style cocktails in West India, and Old Fashioneds in Sri Lanka [5][6] Upcoming Events - The Top 100 bartenders will compete in four Regional Finals, narrowing down to the Top 16, with World Class Cocktail Festivals scheduled in Mumbai and Gurgaon in February and March [7][12] - The ultimate goal is to crown one bartender as India's World Class Champion, who will represent the region at the Global Finals in September 2026 [8]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The demand for high-end spirits has sharply declined, leading to record-high inventory levels of whiskey, cognac, and tequila among major global liquor companies [1][2] - The total value of aged spirits inventory for companies like Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Campari, Brown-Forman, and Rémy Cointreau has reached approximately $22 billion, the highest level in over a decade [1] - The current oversupply situation can be traced back to the pandemic, which initially increased home drinking demand and prompted producers to significantly ramp up production [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The spirits industry is experiencing a downturn in optimism as inflation squeezes household budgets and consumer spending contracts, leading to profit warnings and management changes among several companies [1] - Cognac has been particularly hard hit, with a significant drop in export volumes and increasing inventory levels exacerbated by trade tensions between China and France [1] - Tequila producers are also facing challenges, with high local inventories in Mexico and a slowdown in sales in the U.S. market [2] Group 3: Financial Implications - The accumulation of inventory is tying up substantial capital, resulting in rising debt levels across the industry, with many producers exceeding historical debt thresholds [2] - Companies like Suntory and Diageo have temporarily shut down or reduced distillation capacity in the U.S. to curb inventory growth [2] - Analysts warn that production cuts carry risks, as spirits typically require years of aging, and a potential future rebound in demand could lead to supply shortages [2]

Core Thesis - Diageo plc is viewed positively by analysts due to its strong brand portfolio, strategic leadership under CEO Dave Lewis, and potential for transformation despite challenges in the alcohol industry [1][5][6] Company Overview - Diageo plc operates in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages across multiple regions including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Africa [2] - The company has over 200 globally recognized brands such as Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, and Guinness [3] Financial Performance - Revenue increased from $15.2 billion in 2017 to $20.5 billion in 2022, but has stagnated at $20.24 billion in 2025 [3] - The stock has declined approximately 37% this year and is 60% below its peak in 2022 [3] Leadership and Strategy - Dave Lewis, the new CEO, brings 27 years of experience and aims to reinvigorate Diageo through cost-cutting and focusing on core growth areas [2][3] - The company is implementing cost-saving measures and strategic capital allocation, including the sale of its 65% stake in East African Breweries Limited for about $3 billion [4] Market Challenges - The primary challenge facing Diageo is the decline in per capita alcohol consumption, particularly in spirits, as consumers are drinking less [4] - Analysts expect continued rationalization of the brand portfolio and divestment of non-core assets to improve financial health [5] Investment Outlook - Diageo is considered an attractive entry point around $85, with a nearly 5% dividend yield and strong cash flow, presenting a favorable risk/reward scenario [5] - The company’s fundamentals and valuation remain compelling despite the broader challenges in the alcohol sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - Diageo is considering divesting its Chinese assets, including a potential sale of its stake in Sichuan Shui Jing Fang, as part of a strategy to streamline its global business portfolio [2][3]. Group 1: Asset Disposal Strategy - Diageo has engaged Goldman Sachs and UBS to evaluate its business in China, particularly its over 63% stake in Shui Jing Fang, and has begun exploratory discussions with local strategic investors and private equity firms [3]. - The discussions regarding the potential sale are still in the early stages, and Diageo has not made any final decisions or commitments to proceed with any transactions [3]. Group 2: Market Speculation and Historical Context - Speculation about the sale of Shui Jing Fang has been ongoing for a year, closely linked to Diageo's broader asset disposal strategy initiated by the previous CEO to cut costs [4]. - Diageo has faced challenges in the Chinese white liquor market, with declining sales impacting Shui Jing Fang, which has been highlighted in recent financial reports [4]. - The company has been actively selling assets in various regions, including Europe, Africa, and Latin America, with notable transactions such as the $2.3 billion sale of stakes in East African breweries to Asahi Group [5]. Group 3: Leadership Changes - The arrival of new CEO Dave Lewis has reignited speculation about the potential sale of Shui Jing Fang, as he is known for decisive and aggressive cost-cutting measures from his previous roles [6]. - The new CEO has not yet publicly outlined his operational strategy, with expectations for more details to emerge during the mid-term financial report in February [7].

Core Viewpoint - Diageo is considering various measures to divest its assets in China, including the potential sale of its stake in Sichuan Shui Jing Fang, as part of a strategy to streamline its global business portfolio [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Disposal Strategy - Diageo has engaged Goldman Sachs and UBS to evaluate its operations in China, particularly its over 63% stake in Sichuan Shui Jing Fang, and has begun exploratory discussions with local strategic investors and private equity firms [3][4]. - The discussions regarding the potential sale of Shui Jing Fang are still in the early stages, and no final decision has been made by Diageo [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Performance - Diageo has been in an asset divestment mode since last year, with its former CEO initiating a cost-saving acceleration plan, which has led to speculation about Shui Jing Fang's future [5]. - The Chinese white liquor market has faced significant challenges, impacting Shui Jing Fang's sales, as noted in Diageo's recent financial reports [5]. Group 3: Recent Transactions and Market Reactions - Over the past year, Diageo has been active in selling assets primarily in Europe, Africa, and Latin America, with notable transactions including the sale of a majority stake in its Ghana brewery for $81 million and a $2.3 billion deal with Asahi Group for East African breweries [6]. - In December, rumors surfaced about Jian Nan Chun potentially acquiring Shui Jing Fang, leading to a rapid increase in Shui Jing Fang's stock price, although the company later denied these reports [6]. Group 4: Leadership Changes - The appointment of new CEO Dave Lewis, known for decisive and aggressive decision-making, has kept market speculation alive regarding the future of Shui Jing Fang [7]. - Lewis has not yet publicly outlined his strategic plans, with expectations for more clarity during the mid-term financial report in February [7].

Core Viewpoint - Diageo is considering divesting its Chinese assets, including shares in Shui Jing Fang, to streamline its asset portfolio. The discussions are in preliminary stages, and no final decision has been made regarding any potential transactions [1]. Group 1 - Diageo is exploring options for the disposal of its Chinese assets, indicating a strategic move to simplify its asset portfolio [1]. - The consideration of asset divestiture is still in the early stages, with no guarantees that Diageo will proceed with any transactions [1]. - Representatives from Diageo, Goldman Sachs, and UBS have declined to comment on the matter [1]. Group 2 - A representative from Shui Jing Fang stated that the company has not received any information regarding a potential equity transfer [1]. - As of the time of reporting, there has been no response from Shui Jing Fang to inquiries made by the media regarding the situation [1].

对于上述情况，新浪财经《酒业内参》问询了水井坊方面，截至发稿前未获回应。 知情人士还表示，目前该公司的考虑处于初步阶段，尚无最终决定，而且不保证帝亚吉欧会决定推进任 何交易。帝亚吉欧、高盛和瑞银的代表均拒绝置评。水井坊的一位代表表示，该公司尚未收到任何有关 股权转让的消息。 1月13日，有知情人士称，帝亚吉欧正考虑其中国资产的处置方案，可能对包括水井坊在内的股份进行 剥离，以达到精简资产组合的目的。 ...