Sabra(US:SBRA)2025-11-06 19:00Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, normalized FFO per share was $0.36 and normalized AFFO per share was $0.38, representing a year-to-date increase of 5% and 4% respectively over the same period in 2024 [13][17] - Cash rental income from the triple-net portfolio decreased by $3.5 million from the previous quarter, while cash NOI from the managed senior housing portfolio increased by $4.7 million, resulting in a net sequential increase of $1.3 million [14][15] - The net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio was 4.96 times as of September 30, 2025, a decrease of 0.04 times from June 30, 2025 [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The managed senior housing portfolio contributed nearly 26% of total annualized cash NOI, with cash NOI growth of 15.9% excluding 16 ex-Holiday properties [6][8] - The same store managed senior housing portfolio saw revenue grow by 5.4% year over year, with occupancy increasing by 110 basis points to 86% [11][12] - Cash and NOI for the same-store managed senior housing portfolio increased by 13.3% year over year, with Canadian communities showing a 20.2% increase [12][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Occupancy in the Canadian portfolio was up 150 basis points to 93.1%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter where occupancy has been above 90% [11] - The overall managed portfolio's occupancy increased by 60 basis points to 86.8%, with RevPAR rising 4.3% sequentially [10][11] - The regulatory environment for skilled nursing remains stable, with skilled exposure dropping below 50% for the first time [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase its SHOP exposure from 26% to 40%, reflecting a strategic shift towards senior housing as a stronger driver of earnings growth [6][7] - The investment target was originally set at $400 million-$500 million but is now expected to exceed $500 million, indicating a robust acquisition pipeline [7][9] - The company is focused on maintaining a balanced portfolio between skilled nursing and senior housing, with a preference for newer assets that are geared towards future demand [8][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the stability and contribution of the SHOP portfolio, with expectations for continued positive momentum in the coming quarters [9][28] - The company anticipates that the current supply-demand equation in senior housing will remain favorable for some time due to a lull in new development [10][73] - Management noted that the dynamics of the market are different from previous years, with strong demographic trends supporting growth in senior housing [65][68] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share, representing a payout of 79% of the third-quarter normalized AFFO per share [21][22] - The company has ample liquidity of approximately $1.1 billion, consisting of unrestricted cash and available borrowings [21][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance maintenance despite strong core performance - Management indicated that most investments closing this year will have a muted impact on 2025 performance, with expectations for their contribution to 2026 [24][25] Question: Core SHOP portfolio metrics excluding Holiday - Management noted that same store NOI was impacted by Holiday, but other metrics remained positive, with occupancy for non-Holiday assets performing better [26][29] Question: Total portfolio occupancy and recent SHOP acquisitions - Management did not disclose total portfolio occupancy but indicated that non-same store assets are largely in line with the same store pool [32][33] Question: Pricing power in targeted markets - Management highlighted that Canadian assets above 90% occupancy have seen rate growth over 5%, suggesting potential for similar trends in the domestic portfolio [34][35] Question: Holiday portfolio improvement and future growth - Management confirmed that operators have stabilized labor in the Holiday portfolio, which is expected to contribute positively to overall growth [39][41] Question: Underwriting and cap rates - Management stated that current investments are yielding between 7% and 8%, with expected mid-single digit annual earnings growth [42][43] Question: SHOP pipeline skew between IL and AL - Management noted a heavier weighting towards AL memory care than IL in the current pipeline [76] Question: Appetite for single idea or opco investments - Management expressed no appetite for pursuing single idea or opco investments, focusing instead on senior housing and skilled nursing [55][56] Question: U.S. versus Canada split for SHOP - The current split is 70 total same-store assets, with 25 in Canada, and management sees growth potential in Canada despite pricing challenges [61][58]