Tariff uncertainty is still lingering over the stock market. As we speak, the Dow Jones Index ( DJI ) is down over 1,000 points, while the S&P ( SP500 ) is down more than 100 (points).Contributing analyst to the iREIT+Hoya Capital investment group. The Dividend Collectuh is not a registered investment professional nor financial advisor and these articles should not be taken as financial advice. This is for educational purposes only and I encourage everyone to do their own due diligence. I'm a Navy veteran w ...

Group 1 - iREIT+HOYA Capital focuses on income-producing asset classes that provide sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [1] - The service offers a free two-week trial for potential investors to explore top ideas across exclusive income-focused portfolios [1] Group 2 - The analyst has over 14 years of investment experience and an MBA in Finance, focusing on defensive stocks with a medium- to long-term investment horizon [2] - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in SBRA shares through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, normalized FFO per share was $0.35 and normalized AFFO per share was $0.36, with normalized AFFO totaling $86.9 million, consistent with Q3 [26][28] - Year-over-year normalized AFFO per share growth was 7%, with full-year 2024 normalized FFO per share at $1.39 and normalized AFFO per share at $1.44 [28][29] - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 5.27% as of December 31, 2024, a decrease from the previous quarter and nearly half a turn from the previous year [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The senior housing and skilled portfolio showed strong performance, with SHOP same-store occupancy up 80 basis points sequentially and cash NOI at 17.9% for the quarter [9][10] - Managed senior housing portfolio revenue grew 3.5% sequentially, with cash NOI growth of 5.4% and margin expansion of 50 basis points [18] - Cash NOI from the managed senior housing portfolio increased to $24.1 million, driven by same-store growth and a new property acquisition [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The skilled occupancy rate increased by 60 basis points sequentially, with EBITDARM coverage reaching an all-time high of 2.09% [10] - The Canadian communities within the same-store portfolio saw revenue growth of 10.6% year-over-year, while domestic portfolio occupancy grew by 2.8% [20][21] - Total expenses for the same-store portfolio rose 3.4% year-over-year, with labor costs increasing by 2.1% [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to build upon its successful 2024 strategy, anticipating a higher volume of deals in 2025, particularly in the skilled nursing space [11][12] - The focus will be on acquiring newer, nearly stabilized senior housing communities that offer care to residents, with a strategic shift towards increasing SHOP exposure [24][74] - The company is optimistic about its ability to withstand potential Medicaid cuts due to strong portfolio performance and robust lobbying efforts [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the political environment's impact on business, noting historical protections for the elderly population regarding Medicaid [13][14] - The company expects revenue growth to continue outpacing expense growth, leading to ongoing cash NOI growth [23] - Management highlighted a robust acquisition pipeline, with many opportunities arising from private equity firms looking to exit investments [52][54] Other Important Information - A quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share was declared, representing a payout of 83% of the fourth quarter normalized AFFO per share [34] - The company has ample liquidity of $980 million, consisting of cash and available borrowings under its revolving credit facility [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are your thoughts on the pacing of occupancy in the senior housing space for 2025? - Management noted that operators are balancing rate increases with occupancy growth, making it difficult to predict exact occupancy trends [36][40] Question: Are you seeing any impacts in pricing for skilled nursing facilities due to the current environment? - The transaction market for skilled nursing is robust, with significant competition from strategic buyers [41][43] Question: What has changed in the acquisition pipeline that gives you confidence for 2025? - The company is seeing higher deal volume and improved cost of capital, allowing for more favorable acquisition opportunities [48][50] Question: How do you expect cash NOI growth to trend in 2025? - Cash NOI growth for the same-store managed senior housing portfolio is expected to be in the low to mid-teens, with a conservative approach to growth assumptions [31][58] Question: Can you elaborate on the strategies operators are implementing to mitigate costs? - Operators have embraced digital marketing for recruitment and revamped onboarding processes to improve employee retention [66] Question: What is the current size of the cash basis tenant base? - The cash basis tenant pool is less than 5% of total NOI, with some sales in the quarter related to cash basis tenants [138][140]

Core Insights - Sabra Healthcare (SBRA) reported revenue of $182.35 million for Q4 2024, marking an 11.6% year-over-year increase, with EPS of $0.36 compared to $0.07 a year ago [1] - The reported revenue fell slightly short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $183.22 million, resulting in a surprise of -0.48%, while the EPS met the consensus estimate [1] Revenue Breakdown - Interest and other income amounted to $9.41 million, slightly below the average estimate of $9.71 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.4% [4] - Resident fees and services generated $76.87 million, exceeding the estimated $75.05 million, representing a significant year-over-year increase of 25.5% [4] - Rental and related revenues were reported at $96.07 million, slightly below the average estimate of $96.34 million, with a year-over-year change of 3.3% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Sabra's shares have returned -3.5%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 2.4% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance against the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Sabra Healthcare reported quarterly funds from operations (FFO) of $0.36 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and an increase from $0.33 per share a year ago [1] - The company posted revenues of $182.35 million for the quarter ended December 2024, which was 0.48% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but an increase from $163.4 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Sabra has surpassed consensus FFO estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed, losing about 5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 gained 4.2% [3] - The current consensus FFO estimate for the coming quarter is $0.37 on revenues of $185.38 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.49 on revenues of $762.45 million [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for REIT and Equity Trust - Other is currently in the bottom 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for the sector [8]

Portfolio and Investments - As of December 31, 2024, the company had a diverse portfolio of 364 properties, with no single state or province accounting for more than 16% of total beds/units[55] - The company plans to grow its investment portfolio by acquiring assisted living, independent living, and memory care communities in the U.S. and Canada[64] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had 60 relationships with operators, aiming to reduce dependence on any single tenant or operator[70] - The company expects to continue to pursue strategic development opportunities, including replacing, renovating, or expanding less competitive facilities[73] - The company intends to support tenants with capital for modernization and facility improvements, structuring these investments as lease amendments or loans[72] - As of December 31, 2024, the company owned eight healthcare facilities, including five senior housing communities and three skilled nursing facilities[84] Financial Position and Liquidity - The company maintained approximately $980.0 million in liquidity, including $60.5 million in unrestricted cash and $893.4 million available under its Revolving Credit Facility[67] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had $1.8 billion in Senior Notes, $534.4 million in Term Loans, and $106.6 million under the Revolving Credit Facility[290] - The company has $640.9 million of outstanding variable rate indebtedness and $893.4 million available for borrowing under the Revolving Credit Facility[290] - Interest rate swaps have been established for $430.0 million of SOFR-based borrowings at a weighted average rate of 2.93%[291] - The company is exposed to a potential $1.1 million increase or decrease in interest expense from a 100 basis point change in the index underlying variable rate debt[294] - The company has CAD $189.6 million in Canadian dollar denominated debt to mitigate foreign currency risk[295] - A 10% change in the value of the Canadian dollar could result in a cash flow impact of $0.5 million[295] Regulatory and Compliance Challenges - The company is subject to extensive healthcare regulations, which could affect reimbursement levels from Medicare and Medicaid[83] - Compliance with minimum staffing requirements is mandatory, with potential fines for non-compliance[82] - The company faces significant legal expenses and management attention related to compliance challenges with healthcare regulations[81] Management and Experience - The management team has over 100 years of combined experience in the healthcare and real estate sectors, enhancing the company's competitive advantage[74] - The company utilizes its management team's industry insight to identify financially strong operators in need of capital funding for growth[71] Lease and Debt Structure - The weighted-average remaining term of the triple-net leases was seven years, with expirations ranging from less than one year to 19 years[56] - The company has filed a shelf registration statement with the SEC, allowing for continuous or delayed offerings of various securities until November 2025[68]

Financial Performance - For the three months ended December 31, 2024, net income was $46.7 million, compared to $17.2 million for the same period in 2023, representing a 172% increase [7]. - The company reported FFO of $85.2 million for Q4 2024, up from $70.2 million in Q4 2023, indicating a 21% year-over-year growth [7]. - The company recorded an AFFO of $87.6 million for Q4 2024, compared to $74.2 million in Q4 2023, marking a 17.5% increase [7]. - Net income rose significantly from $17,156 million in December 2023 to $46,695 million in December 2024, marking an increase of about 172.5% [14]. - Total Net Operating Income (NOI) reached $488.612 million, with contributions from various segments including $261.289 million from skilled nursing and $74.565 million from senior housing [20]. - Cash Net Operating Income for the year was $484.773 million, reflecting adjustments for non-cash revenues and expenses [20]. - Annualized Cash Net Operating Income was reported at $489.591 million, indicating a strong operational performance [22]. Revenue Growth - Cash rental income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $363.9 million, an increase from $352.3 million in 2023, reflecting a growth of 3.7% [12]. - Resident fees and services revenue increased from $61,256 million in December 2023 to $76,865 million by December 2024, representing a growth of approximately 25.5% [14]. - Same store resident fees and services showed a steady increase, reaching $68,600 million by December 2024, up from $63,890 million in December 2023, which is an increase of approximately 7.5% [14]. Guidance and Projections - The company provided 2025 guidance for net income per diluted common share ranging from $0.67 to $0.70, with normalized FFO expected between $1.43 and $1.46 [3]. - The company anticipates low-single-digit Cash NOI growth for the triple-net portfolio and low-to-mid teens Cash NOI growth for the same store Senior Housing - Managed portfolio [5]. - The weighted average share count for Normalized FFO is projected to be approximately 240 million shares [5]. Debt and Financial Ratios - The company reported a net debt of $2.38 billion with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 5.27x as of December 31, 2024 [9]. - Net Debt is calculated as the principal balances of the Company's credit facilities and loans, net of cash and cash equivalents [35]. - Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as Net Debt divided by Annualized Adjusted EBITDA, reflecting the Company's leverage relative to its earnings [36]. Operational Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $112.8 million, with an annualized figure of $451.2 million [9]. - Cash Net Operating Income for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $123,931 million, up from $18,492 million in December 2023, demonstrating strong operational performance [17]. - The company reported a net operating income of $125,639 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024, compared to $18,492 million in December 2023, indicating substantial growth [17]. Expenses and Impairments - The company expects general and administrative expenses to be around $50 million, which includes $11 million of stock-based compensation expense [5]. - Interest expenses amounted to $115.272 million, highlighting the cost of financing [20]. - Impairment of real estate was noted at $18.472 million, impacting overall profitability [20]. - The company experienced a net gain on sales of real estate amounting to $(6,064) million, indicating challenges in this area [17]. - The company reported a net gain on sales of real estate totaling $(2.095) million, indicating challenges in asset disposals [20]. Definitions and Metrics - Funds From Operations (FFO) is defined as net income excluding gains or losses from real estate dispositions, plus real estate depreciation and amortization, and is considered a useful measure for comparing operating performance [34]. - Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) excludes stock-based compensation and other non-cash items, providing a clearer view of the Company's operating results [34]. - Cash Net Operating Income (NOI) is projected to grow from $18,492 million in December 2023 to $24,148 million by December 2024, reflecting an increase of around 30.6% [14]. - Net Operating Income (NOI) is defined as total revenues less operating expenses, serving as a key measure for evaluating investment performance [37]. - Normalized FFO and Normalized AFFO adjust for certain income and expense items not indicative of ongoing results, aiding in performance comparison [40]. Business Segments - Senior Housing includes various community types such as independent living and assisted living, indicating the Company's focus on diverse healthcare services [41]. - Skilled Nursing/Transitional Care facilities encompass skilled nursing and mental health services, highlighting the Company's service offerings in healthcare [42].

Group 1 - Wall Street analysts expect Sabra Healthcare (SBRA) to report quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.1% [1] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $183.22 million, which represents a 12.1% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.9% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts predict 'Revenues- Interest and other income' will be $9.71 million, showing a change of +6.7% from the previous year [4] - 'Revenues- Resident fees and services' are expected to reach $75.05 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +22.5% [4] - 'Revenues- Rental and related revenues' are projected to be $96.34 million, reflecting a change of +3.5% from the prior-year quarter [4] Group 3 - 'Depreciation and amortization' is estimated to be $43.11 million, slightly up from $42.88 million a year ago [5] - Over the past month, shares of Sabra have returned -2.5%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.7% change [5] - SBRA currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance in the near future [5]

Core Insights - The Future Investor is a new author concept on the Seeking Alpha platform, focusing on diversified portfolio growth and performance drivers across multiple sectors [1] - The author, Albert Anthony, has covered over 200 stocks since 2023 and has gained over 1.07K followers [1] - A new book titled "The Future Investor: Growing a Diversified Portfolio (2025 edition)" is in development [1] Author Background - Albert Anthony is a Croatian-American with a background in political science and experience as an information systems analyst at Charles Schwab [1] - He has completed certification programs from various institutions, focusing on capital markets and securities [1] - The author manages a small equities portfolio called the Future Investor Fund and is involved in business and innovation conferences [1] Media Presence - The Future Investor channel was launched on YouTube in late 2024 to complement the articles and provide market commentary [1] - Albert Anthony is an active member of the Croatian Association of Economists since 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Sabra Healthcare (SBRA) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][8] - The Zacks rating system is beneficial for individual investors as it provides a clearer picture of earnings estimate revisions, which are crucial for short-term stock price movements [2][14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sabra has increased by 0.7% over the past three months, reflecting analysts' growing optimism about the company's earnings outlook [11][12] Group 2 - Sabra is projected to earn $1.42 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.8% [15] - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places Sabra in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for higher stock prices in the near term [17] - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced approach, with only the top 5% of stocks receiving a 'Strong Buy' rating, ensuring that Sabra's upgrade reflects its strong earnings estimate revision feature [16]