Seazen(SH:601155)2025-11-10 03:34Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - Industry: China Property - Survey Conducted: October 24-28, 2025, with over 2,000 residents across Tier 1 to Tier 4 cities [7][11] Key Findings Housing Price Outlook - Weaker Sentiment: A net 42% of respondents expect home prices to fall in the next 12 months, up from 33% in July [2][15] - Tier 1 Cities: Confidence is particularly low, with a net 67% anticipating price declines, compared to 50% in July and 39% in April [2][15] - Tier 2 Cities: A net 45% expect price drops, an increase from 23% in July [15] Home Selling Plans - Urgency to Sell: 41% of potential sellers plan to sell within the next six months, down from 44% in July [3][18] - Willingness to Accept Losses: 52% of sellers are willing to take a loss on their sale, slightly down from 56% in July [3][19] - Listing Behavior: Increased listing volume with lower prices in the secondary market [3] Home Purchase Plans - Weak Purchase Intent: Only 48% of respondents are likely to consider buying property in the future, the lowest since the survey began in Q3 2023 [4][12] - Extremely Likely Buyers: Only 15% are "extremely likely" to purchase, down from 16% in July [4][12] - Short-term Expectations: Only 2% expect to make a purchase in the next 12 months [4][12] Investment Recommendations - Cautious on POEs: The recent industry pullback presents a potential entry point for quality State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) [5] - Preferred Stocks: - CR Land (1109.HK): Long-term market consolidator with attractive dividend yields [5] - C&D International Investment Group Ltd (1908.HK): Strong fundamentals with a favorable valuation [26] - Seazen Holdings Company Ltd (601155.SS): Noted for robust mall rental and private REIT divestment [5][27] Additional Insights - Negative Feedback Loop: Concerns about income and cautious buyer sentiment may exert further downward pressure on home prices [4] - Market Dynamics: The overall housing price outlook remains weak, particularly in Tier 1 cities, indicating a challenging environment for both buyers and sellers [17] Conclusion The survey indicates a significant decline in confidence regarding home prices in China, especially in Tier 1 cities. The urgency among sellers to divest their properties, coupled with weak buyer sentiment, suggests a challenging market ahead. Investment opportunities may arise in quality SOEs amidst the current market pullback.