中国材料_2025 年实地需求监测 — 钢材库存与消费数据-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #159– Steel Inventory and Consumption Data

Summary of the Conference Call on Steel Inventory and Consumption Data Industry Overview - The report focuses on the steel industry in China, analyzing high-frequency demand trends and production data [1][1]. Key Points and Arguments Production Data - Total steel production in China from October 31 to November 6 was 8.6 million tons (mt), reflecting a 2.1% decrease week-over-week (WoW) and a 0.6% decrease year-over-year (YoY) [1][1]. - Year-to-date total steel production reached 386.5 mt, which is a 0.7% increase YoY [1][1]. - Breakdown of production includes: - Rebar: 2.1 mt, -1.9% WoW, -10.8% YoY - Hot Rolled Coil (HRC): 3.2 mt, -1.7% WoW, +2.1% YoY - Cold Rolled Coil (CRC): 0.8 mt, -2.5% WoW, -0.3% YoY [1][1]. Inventory Levels - As of November 6, China's steel inventory was 15.0 mt, down 0.7% WoW but up 23.4% YoY [1][1]. - Inventory composition: - Steel mills: 4.3 mt, -1.9% WoW, +7.4% YoY - Traders: 10.8 mt, -0.2% WoW, +31.1% YoY [1][1]. - Specific inventory levels for rebar, HRC, and CRC: - Rebar: 5.9 mt, -1.7% WoW, +33.9% YoY - HRC: 4.1 mt, +0.9% WoW, +23.9% YoY - CRC: 1.5 mt, +0.6% WoW, -4.1% YoY [1][1]. Apparent Consumption - During the week of October 31 to November 6, apparent steel consumption was 8.7 mt, down 5.4% WoW and 1.2% YoY [1][1]. - Year-to-date apparent consumption totaled 382.1 mt, reflecting a 1.5% increase YoY [1][1]. - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Rebar: 2.2 mt, -5.9% WoW, -4.4% YoY - HRC: 3.1 mt, -5.3% WoW, -1.5% YoY - CRC: 0.8 mt, -6.1% WoW, -4.5% YoY [1][1]. Additional Insights - Market expectations for a demand recovery in the steel sector remain cautious, with a ranking of demand recovery potential indicating copper, battery materials, and gold as leading sectors, followed by aluminum, cement, steel, lithium, and thermal coal [1][1]. - The data suggests a mixed outlook for the steel industry, with production and consumption showing signs of decline in the short term, while inventory levels are significantly higher YoY, indicating potential oversupply issues [1][1].