Citi(US:C)2025-11-10 03:34Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (Nov 2025) Industry Overview - Industry: Aluminum - Region: China - Report Date: November 6, 2025 - Source: Citi Research, Mysteel Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China for the week of October 30 to November 5, 2025, was 854,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but showing a 3% increase year-over-year (YoY) and a 2% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Aluminum billet production was 358,000 tons (kt), also flat WoW, with a 7% increase YoY and a 6% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production for the calendar year reached 37.9 million tons (mnt), reflecting a 2.8% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 15.5 million tons (mnt), up 6.0% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - As of November 6, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory in China was 915,000 tons (kt), flat WoW, with a 4% increase YoY and a 5% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 759,000 tons (kt), flat WoW, 10% increase YoY - Producers' inventory: 156,000 tons (kt), up 2% WoW, but down 17% YoY [3] - Total aluminum ingot inventory was 666,000 tons (kt), up 1% WoW and 6% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 249,000 tons (kt), flat WoW and down 3% YoY [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption for the week was 881,000 tons (kt), down 5% WoW, flat YoY, but up 4% YoY on the lunar calendar [4] - Specific consumption figures: - Aluminum ingot: 903,000 tons (kt), down 2% WoW, flat YoY - Aluminum billet: 336,000 tons (kt), down 7% WoW, but up 9% YoY [4] - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption reached 39.1 million tons (mnt), reflecting a 4.5% increase YoY [4] Market Sentiment and Analysis - The aluminum inventory data is considered more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand as it encompasses various types of aluminum inventory [5] - The current inventory level is lower than the same period in 2021 but higher than the levels observed in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption levels have decreased WoW but are higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector, with a pecking order of demand across various materials: copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel > lithium > thermal coal [1]