Summary of Pony AI Research Call Company Overview - Company: Pony AI Inc. (PONY.O/2026.HK) - Founded: 2016 - Industry: Autonomous Mobility and Robotaxi Services - Key Markets: Operates in four tier-1 cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) [15][20] Core Insights - Coverage Initiation: Citi initiates coverage on Pony AI with a Buy/High Risk rating and a target price of HKD190.9 for H-shares and US$24.5 for ADRs, reflecting share dilution post-H-share listing [1][3] - Market Growth: The China Robotaxi fleet is projected to grow from 3.8k units in 2025 to 538k units in 2030 and 2.3 million units by 2035, with a total addressable market expected to reach US$15 billion in 2030 and US$68 billion in 2035 [1] - Market Share: Pony AI is expected to capture 20% of the domestic Robotaxi fleet market share by 2030, with a fleet size of 109.2k units [1] Financial Projections - Earnings Forecast: Updated EPS forecast for 2025-2027 is US$-0.58/-0.59/-0.35, improved from previous estimates due to share dilution [3] - Valuation Metrics: Target price implies 38x 2027E PS and 28.0x 2030E PE, with current trading around 25x 2027E PS [3][17] Cost Dynamics - Cost Reduction: Full vehicle cost per Robotaxi is expected to decline at -6% CAGR to US$32.4k in 2030 and -3% CAGR to US$28.2k in 2035 due to scale effects and technology improvements [1] Regulatory Milestones - Regulatory Approvals: Pony AI has secured significant regulatory milestones, including city-wide permits for fully-driverless commercial Robotaxi operations in Shenzhen [2][9] Competitive Advantages - Regulatory Edge: Pony AI holds a dominant position in obtaining domestic robotaxi licenses across major cities, providing a competitive advantage [16][21] - Technological Leadership: Focus on Level 4 autonomous driving technology enhances safety and reliability compared to competitors [16][21] - Cost Efficiency: The 7th-generation robotaxi has a vehicle cost of US$38k, significantly lower than both domestic and US competitors [16][21] Risks - High-Risk Rating: The company is rated as High Risk due to loss-making status and uncertainties in the robotaxi sector [3][18] - Key Risks Identified: Include technological challenges, business model uncertainties, safety concerns, competition, regulatory risks, cash shortages, and evolving technology uncertainties [18][23] Conclusion - Investment Recommendation: Pony AI is positioned as a leading player in the autonomous mobility sector with significant growth potential, but investors should be aware of the inherent risks associated with the industry [1][3][18]
小马智行_首次覆盖小马智行 - H，评级 “买入”_高风险