晶澳科技20251111

Summary of the Conference Call for Jingao Technology Industry Overview - The global photovoltaic (PV) demand is expected to be between 580-600 GW this year, with a slight increase anticipated next year. The domestic market's installed capacity is projected to decrease from 300 GW to between 270-300 GW, while the European market remains stable and emerging markets show limited growth [2][4][9]. Company Performance and Outlook - The company anticipates a year-on-year decline of approximately 10% in total module shipments, amounting to over 700,000 units, aligning with the initial expectations of self-discipline production limits and anti-involution policies [2][4]. - The delivery prices of modules have gradually recovered in the second half of the year, but the increase in silicon material prices has outpaced that of modules, potentially leading to weaker profitability in the fourth quarter, although a slight growth is still expected [3][18][19]. Pricing and Market Dynamics - The transmission of price increases from upstream silicon wafers and materials to downstream modules is challenging due to the dispersed customer base and significant differences between domestic and international markets [2][5][6]. - Domestic module pricing is primarily based on cost, with no malicious competition allowed below cost price. Prices are gradually stabilizing under policy support, but further recovery will depend on demand release [8]. International Market Insights - The overseas market is gradually recovering, with European distributors showing increased willingness to purchase as prices stabilize. Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, are performing well and have a higher acceptance of price increases [7][10]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in Oman, with plans for 6 GW of battery and 3 GW of module capacity, aimed at enhancing overseas supply chain flexibility in response to new tariff measures affecting Southeast Asian countries [10]. U.S. Market Considerations - The U.S. market, while profitable, is significantly influenced by political factors. The company is closely monitoring geopolitical changes and tariff policies, adjusting strategies accordingly to address potential challenges [11][12]. - The company has sold its U.S. component factory to comply with the Inflation Reduction Act and is considering reducing equity stakes in its Oman capacity to meet regulatory requirements [17]. Future Demand and Production Expectations - For 2026, global PV installed capacity is expected to slightly increase to around 600 GW, with China’s market potentially declining while Europe remains stable and emerging countries grow rapidly [9]. - The second quarter of next year is viewed as a critical period for demand clarity, with potential price increases if demand rises [15]. Technological and Cost Considerations - The industry is currently in a profit recovery phase, with limited motivation for new capacity expansion. New technologies like TOPCon are being improved, while others remain in the experimental stage [21]. - The decline in per-watt costs has been minimal this year, as costs are already low, and significant technological advancements are slow to materialize [22]. IPO Status - The company is in the process of an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, currently in the queue and meeting market capitalization requirements [23].