NEW HOPE(SZ:000876)2025-11-12 02:20Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese property market, highlighting recent trends and policy changes affecting housing consumption and market performance. Key Highlights - Policy Changes: The proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan suggests removing irrational restrictions on housing consumption. A MOHURD-affiliated outlet indicated that Tier-1 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen) could fully cancel home purchase restrictions. Proposed stimulus measures include: - Nationwide interoperability of housing provident funds - Lower VAT exemption period for secondary home sales - Pilot programs for personal income tax deductions on home renovation - Optimized criteria for defining first and second homes - New mechanisms for property purchase tax rebates - Market Reaction: Following these announcements, shares of covered developers rose by an average of 4% on Monday, contrasting with a flat performance of the CSI 300/MSCI China index [1][1][1]. Market Performance - Transaction Volumes: - Primary transaction volume fell by 29% week-over-week (wow) and 37% year-over-year (yoy). - Secondary transactions moderated by 4% wow and 23% yoy. - Secondary home visitations and new listings declined by 5% and 8% wow, respectively [2][2][2]. - Average Transaction Prices: The average transaction price in 15 cities fell by 2% wow and was 3% below the October level [2][2][2]. Key Data Points - New Home Sales: - New home sales volume decreased by 29% wow and 37% yoy, with Tier-1 and Central & Western cities outperforming. - Secondary transactions were down 4% wow and 23% yoy, with agents expecting stronger price appreciation than homeowners [5][5][5]. - Year-to-Date Performance: - Primary Gross Floor Area (GFA) sold was down 10% yoy, with Tier-1 and Central & Western cities outperforming. - Secondary GFA sold was up 6% yoy [6][6][6]. Inventory and Completions - Inventory Levels: - Inventory balance decreased by 0.2% wow and 3.7% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.5 [14][14][14]. - Completions: - GSPC tracker indicates flattish yoy completions for October 2025, with a projected 10% yoy decline for FY25E [41][41][41]. Valuation Insights - Developer Valuations: - Offshore coverage developers saw an average share price increase of 4% wow, while onshore developers averaged 3% wow. - Offshore coverage trades at an average 38% discount to end-2025E NAV, while onshore coverage trades at a 9% discount [48][48][48]. Implications for Investors - The report suggests that the recent policy changes and market reactions could present both opportunities and risks for investors in the Chinese property market. The ongoing decline in transaction volumes and prices, coupled with potential policy support, creates a complex investment landscape [7][7][7].