Nvidia(US:NVDA)2025-11-12 02:20Summary of Greater China Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Greater China Semiconductors - Key Themes: Global AI Supply-Chain Updates, Opportunities in Asia Semiconductors, Preference for Foundry/OSAT/Memory over Chip Design [1][2] Core Insights - Investment Recommendations: - Overweight (OW): TSMC (Top Pick), Aspeed, Alchip, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, ASMPT, AllRing, SMIC - Memory Stocks: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix - Non-AI Stocks: OmniVision, Realtek, USI - China WFE: NAURA Tech, AMEC, ACMR - Underweight (EW/UW): MediaTek, UMC, ASMedia, Vanguard, WIN Semi, Hua Hong [8] - Market Dynamics: - AI cannibalization is expected, with a gradual recovery in the second half of 2025. Historically, a decline in semiconductor inventory days has been a positive indicator for stock price appreciation [8] - DeepSeek technology is driving inferencing AI demand, but there are concerns about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [8] - Rising costs in wafers, OSAT, and memory are anticipated to create margin pressures for chip designers into 2026 [8] - Long-term Demand Drivers: - Tech Diffusion: AI semiconductor demand is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, impacting various verticals beyond the semiconductor industry [8] - Tech Deflation: Anticipated "price elasticity" is expected to stimulate demand for technology products [8] Valuation Insights - Valuation Metrics: - TSMC (Ticker: 2330.TW) has a current price of 1,465.0 TWD with a target price of 1,688.0 TWD, indicating a 15% upside [9] - UMC (Ticker: 2303.TW) has a current price of 45.3 TWD with a target price of 48.0 TWD, indicating a 6% upside [9] - SMIC (Ticker: 0981.HK) has a current price of 72.1 HKD with a target price of 80.0 HKD, indicating an 11% upside [9] - Winbond (Ticker: 2344.TW) has a current price of 64.5 TWD with a target price of 72.0 TWD, indicating a 12% upside [9] Additional Insights - Analyst Conflicts: Morgan Stanley acknowledges potential conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies, which may affect research objectivity [2] - Market Sentiment: The overall industry view is considered attractive, indicating positive sentiment towards the semiconductor sector in Greater China [2] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the investment landscape, market dynamics, and valuation metrics within the Greater China semiconductor industry.