Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported normalized EBITDA of $250 million for the third quarter, with distributable cash flow of $236 million benefiting from a current tax recovery of $71 million due to changes in U.S. tax legislation [11][12] - The outlook for distributable cash flow is revised to approximately $700 million for 2025, with an effective tax rate expected to range between 20-21% [11][12] - The normalized EBITDA guidance for 2025 is reaffirmed at $1.01 billion, with a forecast for 2026 normalized EBITDA of $1.03 billion, reflecting a 2% range increase [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The marketing segment is expected to see normalized EBITDA approximately $25 million higher, while InterAlberta and other segments are projected to increase by about $10 million due to BlackRod cash flows ramping up [12] - Keystone's normalized EBITDA is anticipated to decrease by approximately $15 million due to reduced planned maintenance capital expenditures [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is encouraged by ongoing dialogues in Canada and the U.S. regarding energy solutions, which highlight the resilience of customer businesses and the strategic positioning of the company's assets [5][6] - The company expects conditions to become more favorable for supply growth in late 2026 to early 2027, as supply growth is anticipated to exceed current egress capacity [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its business and enhance competitiveness while ensuring safe operations and financial strength [4][5] - The focus is on maturing and executing a growth portfolio through both organic and inorganic opportunities, with the BlackRod project serving as a successful template [4][30] - The company is working towards exiting transition services with TC Energy by the end of 2025, which is expected to improve efficiency and cost savings [3][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in returning Keystone to baseline operations by 2026, with ongoing remedial actions reinforcing system integrity [7][9] - The company is optimistic about the potential for growth in customer organizations and the overall market environment, which has become more constructive since the spin-off [30][31] Other Important Information - The company has completed significant milestones in the BlackRod project, including mechanical completion and the commissioning of a natural gas lateral [9] - Legal proceedings related to variable toll disputes have been resolved, allowing the company to focus on new business opportunities [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on major projects and Keystone XL discussions - The company is providing advisory support for Alberta's crude pipeline initiative but is not directly involved in the project [17][18] Question: Outlook on crude spreads and inventory normalization - The company anticipates improved conditions for egress in late 2026 to early 2027, driven by supply growth [21][22] Question: Details on tax optimization and U.S. legislation changes - Tax benefits stem from extended interest deduction legislation and accelerated tax pools, with expectations of returning to a regular tax cadence by 2027 [24][25] Question: Impact of transition agreements on efficiency and cost savings - The company is focused on optimizing processes post-transition, which is expected to enhance EBITDA but is not included in the current 2-3% growth outlook [25][27] Question: Organic growth opportunities and project types - The company is exploring various growth opportunities in both Canada and the U.S., with a focus on customer needs [30][31] Question: CapEx assumptions for 2026 - The company suggests a consistent investment of approximately $100 million annually to achieve EBITDA growth, with no sanctioned projects currently [36][38] Question: Variable toll settlements and future P&L impact - Remaining payments related to variable toll settlements will be normalized out of EBITDA, confirming the expected financial impact [40][41]
South Bow Corporation(SOBO) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript