印度经济_通胀处于历史低位，但这是否足以让印度储备银行进一步宽松

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Indian economy, specifically analyzing inflation trends and the implications for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) [1][4][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - Headline Inflation Decline: Headline inflation fell to an all-time low of 0.25% YoY in October 2025, down from a revised 1.44% in September 2025. This decline is attributed to favorable base effects, subdued food prices, and GST cuts [1][4][18]. - Core Inflation Trends: Core inflation rose by 13 basis points to 4.4% YoY in October 2025, primarily driven by a spike in gold prices. The core CPI excluding petrol and diesel fell to a new low of 2.8% YoY [4][13][19]. - Impact of GST Cuts: GST rate cuts are estimated to have reduced headline inflation by 15-20 basis points and core inflation by approximately 35 basis points in October 2025. The largest impact was observed in CPI passenger cars, which saw a 6.4% decrease [12][14][19]. - Vegetable Prices: Vegetable inflation reached -28% YoY in October 2025, the lowest since the series began in 2013, driven by subdued prices of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes [5][10][19]. - Food and Beverage Inflation: Excluding vegetable inflation, food and beverage inflation is at a 6.5-year low of 1.6% YoY in October 2025 [10][12]. Additional Important Insights - Revised Inflation Forecasts: The average FY26 headline inflation forecast has been revised down to 2.0% YoY from 2.3% earlier, with expectations of 1.8% YoY for 2HFY26 [18][19]. - RBI's Rate Cut Considerations: There is an 80-100 basis points downside risk to RBI's inflation forecasts for 2HFY26 (2.9%) and 1HFY27 (4.5%). Despite this, the RBI may prefer to maintain a dovish stance rather than implement immediate rate cuts due to resilient economic activity [19][21]. - Future Economic Indicators: The upcoming 2QFY26 GDP data is expected to exceed 7%, which may prompt the RBI to revise its full-year GDP growth forecast upward [19][21]. Conclusion - The Indian economy is experiencing historically low inflation rates, influenced by various factors including GST cuts and subdued food prices. The RBI faces a complex decision-making environment regarding potential rate cuts, balancing inflation risks with ongoing economic resilience.