BEKE(US:BEKE)2025-11-18 09:41Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the China Real Estate sector, highlighting the current market dynamics and sentiment shifts within the industry [2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Market Sentiment: The property market is experiencing softened sentiment, particularly in the high-end housing segment, indicating potential instability despite previous recovery efforts [2][6]. 2. Government Policy Impact: The effectiveness of government policies aimed at improving living standards and housing demand is questioned, suggesting that these measures may not be sufficient to stabilize the new home market [2][6]. 3. Investor Outlook: Investors are advised to remain vigilant for potential supportive housing market policies that could act as catalysts for stock performance, especially during periods of low policy expectations [2][6]. 4. Earnings Visibility: Companies such as CRL, C&D, and Seazen are highlighted as key picks due to their strong fundamentals and higher earnings visibility compared to peers [3][6]. 5. Home Price Trends: Recent data indicates a decline in home prices in tier-1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which may improve affordability and rental yields, potentially leading to market stabilization [7][6]. 6. Project Launch Strategies: Developers are delaying project launches due to subdued sales momentum, with selective price adjustments expected to facilitate sales and capital recycling [7][6]. 7. Regional Resilience: Low-tier cities, particularly tier-3 cities in Fujian Province, are showing greater resilience compared to top-tier cities, emphasizing the importance of product positioning [7][6]. 8. Market Recovery Expectations: Beike has indicated a potential housing market turnaround by the end of 2026 or early 2027, with a projected normalized Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of RMB 15 trillion [7][6]. Additional Important Points 1. Sell-Through Rates: The sell-through rates of key projects launched by various developers are provided, indicating varying performance levels across different companies [15][16]. 2. Valuation Metrics: The report includes valuation metrics for several property developers, with target prices and upside potential highlighted for CR Land, C&D International, and Seazen [27][27]. 3. Risks Identified: Key risks to the outlook include the inability to maintain sales momentum, lower-than-expected margins, and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and property-specific policies [27][27]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China Real Estate sector.