Summary of Oil Price Forecasts Through 2035 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the Brent and WTI crude oil prices forecast through 2035, highlighting supply and demand dynamics and investment implications [2][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments Oil Price Forecasts - 2026 Price Decline: Forecasts indicate Brent and WTI prices will decline to averages of $56 and $52 respectively in 2026 due to a significant surplus of 2.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) driven by strong global supply outside of Russia [2][4][8]. - 2027 Price Recovery: Prices are expected to recover in 2027 as the market balances, with a shift to a deficit anticipated in the second half of 2027 due to low prices affecting non-OPEC supply and increasing demand [2][29][30]. - Long-Term Price Increase: By late 2028, Brent and WTI prices are projected to rise to $80 and $76 respectively, necessary to incentivize investment and balance the market in the early 2030s [2][42][45]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply Wave Impact: The 2025-2026 supply wave, resulting from long-cycle projects delayed during the pandemic, is expected to keep the market in surplus [2][8][18]. - Demand Growth: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d in 2026, primarily driven by solid GDP growth and demand from Asia excluding China [24][81]. - Russia's Supply Decline: Russia's oil production is expected to decline from 10.1 mb/d in Q4 2025 to 9.0 mb/d by the end of 2027, contributing to the overall supply dynamics [24][64]. Investment Implications - Investment Needs: The forecasted long-run prices of $80 Brent are deemed necessary to stimulate investment in oil production, particularly in non-OPEC regions, to counteract natural declines in existing fields [2][42][45]. - Recommendations for Stakeholders: - Investors: Recommended to short the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent timespread to capitalize on the anticipated surplus [72]. - Oil Producers: Suggested to hedge against potential price declines in 2026 due to supply resilience and recession risks [73]. - Oil Consumers: Advised to hedge against long-run price increases from 2028 onwards, while waiting for more favorable pricing in 2026 [74]. Risks and Uncertainties - Price Risks: The forecasts for 2026 and 2027 carry two-sided risks; prices could fall into the $40s if non-OPEC supply remains resilient or if a recession occurs, while they could rise above $70 if Russian supply drops sharply [2][48][56]. - Long-Term Uncertainties: Long-term price forecasts are subject to significant uncertainties due to technological advancements, geopolitical factors, and the impact of low-carbon alternatives on demand [2][56][57]. Historical Context - The report references historical price volatility influenced by various factors, including geopolitical events and supply shocks, illustrating the unpredictability of oil prices [9][11]. Additional Important Content - Forecasting Framework: The report introduces a new framework for estimating long-dated prices, emphasizing the relationship between spot prices and long-term investment incentives [12][84]. - Global Inventory Trends: Recent increases in global visible oil inventories support the surplus estimates, indicating a need for lower prices to restore market balance [23][90]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected trajectory of oil prices, the underlying supply and demand factors, and the implications for various stakeholders in the oil market.
2035 年油价展望-2026 年因最后一波供应潮下跌，后续回升-Energy Tomorrow_ Oil Prices Through 2035_ Down in 2026 on Last Supply Wave, Up Later