TSMC(US:TSM)2025-11-18 09:41Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Dominant Theme: AI remains the dominant theme in the technology sector heading into 2026, with a notable lack of interest in non-AI segments [1][2] - Investor Sentiment: Overall sentiment is heavily skewed towards AI-related companies, with discussions focusing on the durability of AI demand and the implications for various companies in the supply chain [1][2] Company-Specific Insights TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Revenue Growth: TSMC is expected to see a revenue growth of 21.7% YoY in USD terms for 2026, following a strong 35% growth in 2025 [3][6] - Utilization Rates: The utilization rates for TSMC's 5nm and 3nm nodes are running at full capacity, indicating strong underlying demand primarily driven by AI [3] - Capex Expectations: There is a debate regarding TSMC's capital expenditure (capex) for 2026, with consensus expectations around US$50 billion, while the company models a more conservative US$44 billion due to cleanroom constraints [6][4] WinWay and MPI - Market Position: Both WinWay and MPI are highlighted as top stock picks due to their strong leverage to the Google TPU supply chain and expected revenue growth of 42% and 46%, respectively, into 2026 [11][12] - Testing Demand: WinWay is expected to benefit from the adoption of system-level testing (SLT), while MPI is set to ship its vertical probe card (VPC) to Google TPU in 2026 [2][11] Aspeed - Server Demand: Aspeed is anticipated to benefit from general server strength, with expectations of above-seasonal guidance for Q1 2026, driven by under-investment in server infrastructure by US cloud service providers [13][27] CoWoS Equipment - Investor Sentiment: There is a cautious sentiment around CoWoS equipment names, with limited earnings upside potential into 2026 and a focus on sectors with stronger earnings momentum [7][8] Additional Insights - MediaTek: Investor interest in MediaTek is low due to limited bottom-line growth and margin pressures, although potential catalysts exist for a revamp in 2027 [9] - KYEC: Elevated interest in KYEC is driven by Nvidia order visibility, although valuation concerns persist [10] - ASE: ASE is viewed positively due to continuous margin expansion from TSMC overflow business and high-margin opportunities in Fan-Out Chip-on-Substrate (FOCoS) [10] Risks and Considerations - Market Risks: Key risks include potential deterioration in end-demand recovery, slower customer node migrations, and intensifying competition in the semiconductor space [17][21][25][30] Conclusion - The technology sector, particularly in AI and semiconductor manufacturing, is poised for significant growth, with TSMC, WinWay, MPI, and Aspeed identified as key players. However, investors should remain cautious of market dynamics and potential risks that could impact growth trajectories.