Freeport-McMoRan(US:FCX)2025-11-18 16:00Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects production for 2026 to be similar to 2025, with significant increases anticipated in 2027-2029 as operations are restored [18][36] - EBITDA is projected to approach $12 billion in 2026, with further growth to over $15.5 billion on average for 2027 and 2028, based on copper prices around $5 per pound [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Grasberg Block Cave incident impacted production, with PB1C representing approximately 2-3% of copper and gold reserves and about 7% of production year-to-date prior to the incident [10][12] - The phased restart plan includes PB2 and PB3, targeting a ramp-up of production in the second quarter of 2026, while PB1 South is expected to restart in mid-2027 and PB1C deferred until the end of 2027 [15][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand trends for copper are positive, driven by increasing requirements for electrification, technology, and energy infrastructure [36] - The company is well-positioned as a leading copper producer with large-scale current production and an attractive pipeline for future growth [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing safety protocols and cave management plans following the September 8th incident, with a commitment to using learnings to prevent recurrence [14][17] - Plans to extend operating rights beyond 2041 are in progress, with government support expected for a long-term extension [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in reestablishing large-scale production and emphasized a commitment to safety above all else [17] - The investigation into the incident has been collaborative with government authorities, ensuring transparency and alignment of interests [48] Other Important Information - The company has a policy providing coverage for up to $700 million for underground losses, which may assist in recovery efforts [38] - Capital expenditures for 2025 and 2026 are estimated to be approximately $800 million below previous estimates, with deferrals to prioritize recovery [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Adjustments to mine planning and operations - The primary difference in the long-term plan is the sequencing of PB1 within PB1, PB1C, and PB1 North, while other portions of the mine are progressing as previously forecast [40] Question: Confidence in safety for resuming mining - Cement plugs will be installed in PB1C to protect against surface contact, ensuring no pathways remain before starting operations [43] Question: Government approval for restart plans - The government has been involved in the investigation and has conceptually approved the restart plans for Deep MLZ and Big Gossan, with ongoing collaboration [48] Question: Impact of new gold tax policies - The company has stabilized terms within its license, and most gold is sold domestically, which is beneficial given the new tax policies [52] Question: Production cost profile impact - Grasberg is expected to maintain a low-cost operation despite some fixed costs being charged to expense during the ramp-up [51]