Summary of the Tooling and PCB Drill Needle Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tooling industry is currently facing challenges due to price wars, leading to poor profit performance. However, several companies have raised prices by double digits, with increases exceeding 50% in some cases. If overseas companies continue to raise prices, domestic firms may follow suit, potentially improving profitability [1][3] - The manufacturing sector is expected to bottom out around 2025 or 2026, with medium to long-term loan data being a key indicator. Tooling orders are anticipated to continue growing, but the growth rate needs to be monitored. The PCB drill needle sector is performing well, although companies are cautious about expanding production [1][4] Market Size and Growth Potential - The Chinese PCB drill needle market was approximately 2.1 billion RMB in 2020, while the global market was around 15.1 billion RMB. It is projected to exceed 10 billion RMB by 2030, indicating significant market potential [1][5] - Tungsten carbide is the primary material for drill needles, and the market share of diamond-coated drill bits is expected to increase. Companies like Ward are making progress in the diamond micro-drill field, and technological breakthroughs may become a future trend [1][6] Raw Material Price Impact - Tungsten carbide powder and cobalt powder account for over 60% of tooling costs. The price of tungsten carbide powder has surged from approximately 300 RMB/kg at the end of March to over 700 RMB/kg, more than doubling. This has led to price increases in the tooling sector, but the lag between rising costs and price adjustments may affect company performance in Q4 and Q1 of the following year [1][7] - China holds 50% of the world's tungsten resources and has implemented a quota system since 2002. A decrease in quotas this year is likely to continue, which may keep tungsten carbide powder prices elevated, exerting cost pressure upstream [1][8] Competitive Landscape - The tooling industry has a high concentration, with leading companies like Ding Tai High-Tech and Jingzhou Zhonggao New Material holding significant market shares and expanding rapidly. Ding Tai's market share is approximately 26.5% [2][11] - The demand for tooling is expected to grow alongside the PCB sector, particularly driven by server demand. The industry is characterized by a few dominant players, with Ding Tai and Jingzhou Zhonggao being the primary leaders [10][11] Future Trends and Recommendations - The order growth in the tooling industry is currently positive, but sustaining this growth rate is uncertain due to potential stockpiling effects. Prices are expected to continue rising, which could help the industry escape the long-standing price war and achieve healthy development [12] - The PCB drill needle segment is performing well, and leading companies are likely to maintain their competitive advantages through scale and R&D capabilities. It is recommended to focus on Ding Tai and Zhong Tung as they may continue to solidify their market positions and expand their competitive edge [14]
刀具&PCB钻针产业跟踪与观点汇报