NNCI(SH:600301)2025-11-24 01:46Summary of Conference Call on T Sector Industry Overview - The T sector has experienced a significant price increase due to favorable policies and increased trading activity on electronic platforms, with prices rising from 145,000 CNY to between 185,000 CNY and 190,000 CNY since early November [1][2] - The cancellation of the export ban has boosted market confidence, leading to a rapid price increase and stabilization above 180,000 CNY [1][2] - Export recovery is expected to significantly impact the demand structure of the T sector, with historical export volumes accounting for approximately 40% of total production, primarily for flame retardant production [1][6] Key Points on Price Trends - The T sector's pricing factors have shifted from photovoltaic glass to exports, with expectations of a price surge due to increased overseas safety stock and rising trade costs [1][10] - Predictions indicate that domestic T element prices could rise to between 250,000 CNY and 300,000 CNY by the end of this year or early next year [1][10][11] - The overall demand for antimony is projected to grow by 2-3% annually, despite potential weaknesses in photovoltaic demand [3][12] Market Dynamics - The supply of antimony ore is expected to decline in the coming years, with domestic leading enterprises unable to significantly increase production and overseas supply remaining tight [3][12] - The export demand for photovoltaic glass has drastically decreased from 2,000-2,500 tons per month to around 100 tons, indicating a near-zero export demand [9] Company Insights - Huaxi Nonferrous is highlighted as a key player, with 40% of its revenue from tin and 40% from antimony, and expected increases in iron and zinc production over the next five years [3][14] - The company is projected to achieve reasonable profits of approximately 1.5 billion CNY by 2026 under certain price assumptions, with a potential valuation of 30 billion CNY [3][14][15] - Other companies of interest include Huayu Mining and Hunan Gold, both of which have strong growth potential and favorable valuations [14][16] Additional Considerations - The T sector's future price trends appear optimistic due to policy support and increased trading activity, with potential for a new upward price cycle if export recovery progresses smoothly [4][10] - The overall market for iron ore is expected to remain high, with average prices projected between 200,000 CNY and 250,000 CNY in 2026 [13]