2月5日，黄金、白银价格突然大跳水。现货白银日内跌超12%，跌破80美元大关，现货黄金价格跌破4800美元，日内跌超3%。 | 美元指数 | 纽约黄金 | 伦敦金(现货黄金) | | --- | --- | --- | | 97.7175 | 4928.37 | 4906.21 | | +0.0534[+0.0547%] -22.43[-0.45%] | | -57.38[-1.16%] | | 黄金连续 | 纽约白银 | 伦敦银(现货白银) | | 1107.52 | 81.78 | 81.78 | | -13.42[-1.20%] | -2.61[-3.10%] | -6.23[-7.08%] | 贵金属板块盘中大面积调整，湖南白银封跌停，晓程科技跌超10%，白银有色（维权）触及跌停，四川黄金、湖南黄金、豫光金铅、招金黄金等跌幅靠 前。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | 总市值1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 58.80 | -10.20% | 161亿 | | 002716 | 湖南白银 | 13.90 | -9. ...

其中，铜价的表现更是超出市场预期。在2025年已实现34.34%涨幅的基础上，2026年开年之后仍持续向上。 2026年开年，金银价格疯狂上涨，带动有色金属全面上行。 但极少有人提及的是，沸腾的有色金属价格，最终会传导到下游制造业，而各行各业的制造业环节上，几乎都是中国的企业在干活。 例如，对于家电、新能源汽车、电子制造等对铜金属高度依赖的制造企业来说，铜价的节节攀升意味着，原本就微薄的利润将在不远的将来被再次压缩。 被涨价裹挟的不只有铜链条。从新能源产业核心原料碳酸锂到光伏生产所必需的白银，从硬质合金的核心基材钨精矿到制作电池的镍、钴，多种工业原材 料价格早已集体飙升。 在上游原材料企业凭借资源垄断赚得盆满钵满的同时，各种硬科技、软科技公司也靠着技术和渠道优势，在商品的生产和流通环节中分得大杯羹。 只有夹在中间的制造企业，一边承受着成本费用的刚性高价，一边面对着下游毫不手软的压价，进退维谷。毫不夸张地说，中国制造业正遭遇一场全链条 围剿。 锡期货走势（自2025年1月至今） 除了有色金属，新能源及高端制造领域所需的特色原材料，涨价幅度更是令人咋舌。碳酸锂作为新能源汽车电池、储能电池的核心原料，价格从2025 ...

# 铜价大跌，下游采购加速恢复：Mysteel调研国内31家铜杆生产企业(含精铜杆、再生铜杆企业，涉及年产能601万 吨)和6家贸易商反馈，当日铜杆订单量为4.30万吨，较上一交易日增2.86万吨，环比涨幅197.73%。 # 铜价回落，延后的订单正在爆发——来自于Mysteel数据 # 大家还在哆嗦讨论价格的时候，实业已经进场加速采购了，晚上时间段，LME等商品价格都在明显反弹。 # 铜价大跌，下游采购加速恢复：Mysteel调研国内31家铜杆生产企业(含精铜杆、再生铜杆企业，涉及年产能601万 吨)和6家贸易商反馈，当日铜杆订单量为4.30万吨，较上一交易日增2.86万吨，环比涨幅197.73%。 # 铜价回落，延后的订单正在爆发——来自于Mysteel数据 # 大家还在哆嗦讨论价格的时候，实业已经进场加速采购了，晚上时间段，LME等商品价格都在明显反弹。 # 提供抄底组合：优质公司的底部显现 # 1、铜：紫金矿业（9000亿是底部）、西部矿业（700亿底部）、洛阳钼业（4500亿左右的底部）；五矿资源和 中国有色矿业本身估值就很低；# 以上按照1.2万美元的价格假设。 盛屯矿业（40亿利润，10倍估值） ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 国内电铜库存开始去化，价格或走强 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 22.6 35.7 128.5 沪深 300 1.7 1.4 23.3 市场表现 -50 0 50 100 150 200 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：铜铝下游 开工率有所回升，高价接受度提 升》2026-01-28 2、《有色金属行业周报：1 月美联 储进一步降息的概率较高，黄金上 行动力较足》2026-01-20 3、《有色金属行业周报：美国非农 就业人数不及预期，贵金属进一步 上行》2026-01-13 ▌贵金属：短期贵金属巨震，但是年内仍将降息支撑 贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 4981.85 美元/盎司，环比 1 月 23 日+35.60 ...

年报预告窗口结束、也是2月的第一个交易日，今日市场迎来了强烈的亏钱效应。 题材方面，有色集体重挫，板块迎来大面积跌停，个股不再赘述； 智能电网板块早盘局部走强，白云电器、顺钠股份、三变科技、积成电子、保变电气、汉缆股份、森源电气、广电电气、大连电瓷、电科院 （20CM）、中超控股、通光线缆（20CM）等集体涨停； 白酒板块开盘大涨，皇台酒业3连板，金徽酒、水井坊（炸）涨停，金种子酒、五粮液、贵州茅台等早盘均一度大幅冲高； 1、行情 此外，光纤、机器人等盘中均有局部表现，周期股、油气、半导体、存储芯片、农业等集体大跌。 截至收盘，沪指、深成指、创业板指分别收跌2.48%、2.69%、2.46%，市场超4600股下跌，700余股上涨，三市成交量大幅收窄至2.6万亿。 2、有色 | 排序 | | 涨跌幅 → | | | 领涨/领跌股 | 资金流向令 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01 | 黄金 | -10.71% | 1/32/0 | 0 | 晓程科技 -18.96% 铜陵有色 -10.04% | +27.81亿 | | | 02 | ...

证券之星消息，2月2日小金属板块较上一交易日下跌6.21%，华锡有色领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4015.75，下跌2.48%。深证成指报收于13824.35，下跌2.69%。小金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002149 | 西部材料 | 52.50 | 6.64% | 141.58万 | | 75.86亿 | | 002842 | 翔鹭钨业 | 27.10 | 3.75% | 74.17万 | | 20.06亿 | | 000962 | 东方银业 | 39.28 | 1.55% | 35.10万 | | 14.33亿 | | 920068 | 天工股份 | 18.75 | -1.52% | 2.77万 | | 5259.92万 | | 002378 | 草源钨业 | 22.30 | -2.15% | 83.59万 | | 19.06亿 | | 600456 | 宝钛股份 | 37.11 | -3.21% | 15.00万 | | 5.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]

截至发稿，栾超累计任职时间10年87天，现任基金资产总规模45.19亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 166.62%， 任职期间最差基金回报-37.49%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 数据显示，华安基金旗下1只基金重仓华锡有色。华安优势领航混合A（024214）四季度持有股数101.5 万股，占基金净值比例为2.03%，位居第四大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约574.49万元。 华安优势领航混合A（024214）成立日期2025年10月31日，最新规模7.23亿。今年以来收益7.03%，同 类排名3205/9000；成立以来收益7.96%。 华安优势领航混合A（024214）基金经理为栾超。 2月2日，华锡有色跌停，截至发稿，报50.95元/股，成交1003.72万元，换手率0.07%，总市值322.29亿 元。 资料显示，广西华锡有色金属股份有限公司位于广西壮族自治区南宁市良庆区体强路12号北部湾航运中 心A座8 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月2日电 2026年2月，A股有111家公司的限售股面临解禁，合计解禁量约为129.02亿股，解禁规模2335.84亿元，环比下降约21.32%，同比下降 约50.63%。其中，信达证券解禁规模居首，解禁市值超400亿元。 从行业分布来看，非银金融、电子、电力设备行业解禁市值分别位列前三。 | 27 | 浩瀚深度 | 688292.SH | 5.751.77 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 28 | 坤泰股份 | 001260.SZ | 8,325.00 | | 29 | 横河精密 | 300539.SZ | 4,530.05 | | 30 | 维海德 | 301318.SZ | 4,984.90 | | 31 | 帝奧微 | 688381.SH | 5,595.36 | | 32 | 远翔新材 | 301300.SZ | 3,029.83 | | 33 | 中润光学 | 688307.SH | 2,985.07 | | 34 | 青松建化 | 600425.SH | 22,59 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the small metals sector, with expectations of price increases and performance improvements in the coming months [58]. Core Insights - The small metals index rose by 7.49% during the reporting period, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.03% [12]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various metals, with rare earth elements showing strong price increases, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 11.03% to 748,700 CNY/ton [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms and the increasing demand for rare earths, particularly in the context of global inventory replenishment needs [15][17]. Summary by Sections Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The small metals index closed at 38,048.84 points, reflecting a 7.49% increase, which is 2.11 percentage points lower than the non-ferrous metals index [12]. - Key commodity prices showed varied trends, with praseodymium oxide increasing by 11.03%, dysprosium oxide decreasing by 10.74%, and tungsten concentrate rising by 19.24% [13]. Main Product Fundamentals and Views Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached 748,700 CNY/ton, driven by supply-side reforms and increased processing fees [2][15]. - The report suggests that the rare earth sector will continue to see valuation and performance improvements, with 2026 being a critical year for resolving competitive issues within the industry [17]. Tin - Tin ingot prices increased by 2.17% to 423,600 CNY/ton, with expectations of continued upward trends due to supply constraints from Indonesia and Myanmar [3][24]. - The demand for tin is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in semiconductors and automotive electronics [24]. Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate prices rose by 19.24% to 600,700 CNY/ton, supported by increased strategic reserves in the U.S. and domestic demand [3][33]. - The report highlights the potential for sustained price increases due to military and civilian demand [33]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased by 1.26% to 164,100 CNY/ton, with expectations of price recovery driven by export improvements [4][40]. - The report notes a significant drop in antimony exports, indicating potential for future price increases as demand stabilizes [40]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices remained stable at 4,010 CNY/ton, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 0.79% to 256,000 CNY/ton [5][43]. - The report suggests that low inventory levels and increased defense spending may support future price increases [43].