Summary of Conference Call on US Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the US semiconductor industry, specifically the foundry services provided by Intel and the potential interest from Qualcomm (QCOM), Apple (AAPL), and Broadcom (AVGO) in Intel's foundry capabilities [1][3]. Key Points Qualcomm's Interest in Intel Foundry - Qualcomm may be evaluating Intel Foundry for its data center ASIC business, which constitutes less than 1% of its sales, approximately $100 million [1][2]. - Job postings from Qualcomm indicate qualifications related to Intel's EMIB packaging technology, suggesting a potential collaboration [1]. Apple and Broadcom's Consideration - Similar job postings from Apple and Broadcom reference Intel technology, indicating they might also be exploring Intel's foundry services [3]. - The focus for all three companies appears to be on packaging rather than front-end foundry services, which typically have lower pricing and margins [4]. Market Dynamics and Challenges - The US government's CHIPS and Science Act aims to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing, which may motivate companies to consider Intel's foundry [4]. - However, the potential revenue from these engagements is expected to be minimal due to the low margins associated with packaging services [2][4]. - Intel is significantly behind TSMC in terms of technology and market position, which raises doubts about the material impact of these potential collaborations [1][6]. Financial Outlook for Intel - Analysts forecast that Intel's foundry business will continue to struggle, with expectations of a loss of $1.00 EPS in 202X [7]. - There are suggestions that Intel should consider exiting the foundry business due to its financial profile [7]. Ratings and Valuation - The current ratings are Neutral for Qualcomm and Sell for Intel, with target prices set at $180.00 for Qualcomm and $29.00 for Intel [8][9]. Risks Identified Intel - PC End-Market Dependency: Intel derives about 90% of its sales from the PC and server segments, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in IT spending [10]. - Customer Concentration: Major PC OEM customers account for roughly 45% of Intel's revenue, posing a risk if orders decline [11]. - Competition: Direct competition with AMD in the microprocessor market could impact market share and revenue [11]. Qualcomm - Handset Market Dependency: Over 60% of Qualcomm's sales come from the handset market, making it sensitive to changes in handset sales [14]. - Customer Risk: Approximately 40% of Qualcomm's sales are from Apple and Samsung, which could affect revenue based on their performance [15]. - Regulatory Risks: Changes in intellectual property regulations could impact Qualcomm's licensing revenue, which constitutes about 13% of its sales [15]. Conclusion - The interest from Qualcomm, Apple, and Broadcom in Intel's foundry services reflects a strategic move to enhance domestic semiconductor capabilities amid government initiatives. However, the expected financial impact remains limited due to the low-margin nature of packaging services and Intel's technological lag behind competitors like TSMC. The overall outlook for Intel's foundry business appears challenging, with significant risks tied to market dependencies and competition.
美国半导体:高通、博通、苹果或在评估英特尔晶圆代工业务,但鉴于技术挑战,我们认为此事难以成行-US Semiconductors_ QCOM, AVGO, Apple Might Be Evaluating Intel Foundry But We Don‘t Think it Will Come to Fruition Given Technical Challenges