Seazen(SH:601155)2025-11-24 01:46Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Property market, specifically analyzing data from October 2025 and projecting challenges into the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Home Sales Decline: Home sales in October experienced a significant decline, with primary sales volume in 65 cities dropping by 32% year-on-year and secondary sales volume in 33 cities declining by 33% year-on-year. This is a stark contrast to the previous month where primary sales were down only 8% and secondary sales were up 10% [3]. 2. Accelerated Price Decline: The NBS 70-city primary home prices fell by 2.6% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month, while secondary prices dropped by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. Tier 1 cities saw a deeper decline in secondary prices, with a 0.9% month-on-month drop [4]. 3. Inventory Levels: Primary inventory months increased to 26 times in October, indicating a rise in unsold properties. Tier 1 cities saw inventory rise to 15.4 times, tier 2 to 25.3 times, and tier 3 to 35.5 times [6]. 4. Land Sales: Land sales in 300 cities dropped by 21% year-on-year in gross floor area (GFA) and 26% year-on-year in value, contributing to a year-to-date decline of 11.2% in GFA [7]. 5. Market Sentiment: The residential sentiment is rapidly worsening, influenced by high inventory levels and reactive policy measures. This sentiment is expected to persist into the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises a defensive and selective investment strategy, recommending accumulation of quality State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) with high alpha opportunities, such as CR Land (1109.HK) and C&D (1908.HK), which are seen as long-term market consolidators with attractive dividend yields. Seazen (601155.SS) is also highlighted for its robust mall rental and private REIT divestment [2]. Additional Insights - Client Engagement: Client visits increased by 3% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month, indicating a slight uptick in market engagement despite the overall negative sentiment [5]. - Listing Volume: New secondary listings softened to -7% month-on-month and -7% year-on-year, while total listings remained stable with a 0.1% month-on-month increase [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property market, highlighting significant declines in sales and prices, rising inventory levels, and strategic investment recommendations.