HAIDILAO(HK:06862)2025-11-24 01:46Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Haidilao International Holding Ltd - Industry: China/Hong Kong Consumer - Stock Ticker: 6862.HK - Market Cap: RMB 67,320 million - Current Share Price: HK$ 13.59 - Price Target: HK$ 17.50 (29% upside) [6][9] Key Points Business Performance - Stabilization: Haidilao's hotpot business operations are stabilizing and benefiting from a low base [3][4] - Profit Contribution: The delivery business and new brands are growth drivers, but their profit contributions remain non-material. The hotpot segment is the major profit contributor [4][3] - Delivery Revenue Growth: Accelerated by 60% in Q3 compared to 1H 2025, with average selling prices (ASP) between RMB 30-50 [8] Financial Metrics - Revenue Projections: Expected net revenue for 2025 is RMB 42,405 million, with a projected CAGR of 26% from 2025 to 2027 [6][9] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.73, with an increase to RMB 0.94 in 2026 [6] - EBITDA: Expected to be RMB 6,963 million in 2025, increasing to RMB 8,523 million in 2026 [6] Market Dynamics - Macro Factors: Key risks include macroeconomic conditions, particularly inflation, and external factors like delivery platform price wars affecting dine-in demand [3][11] - Store Expansion: Slowed due to weaker-than-expected performance of YEAH Qing, with a revised target of 80+ stores by the end of 2025 [8] Valuation and Risks - Valuation Methodology: Target P/E of 17x 2026 earnings, reflecting cautious consumption sentiment amid macro uncertainties [9] - Upside Risks: Faster macro recovery, better-than-expected demand, and quicker new store openings could enhance performance [11] - Downside Risks: Include raw material cost inflation, delays in new store openings, and potential increases in staff costs affecting service quality [11] Additional Insights - Table Turn Improvement: Sequential improvement in table turn year-over-year, with low-single-digit growth observed in October [8] - New Brand Performance: Ju Gao Gao, a lower ASP hotpot format, has over 30 stores, with plans for more openings in 2026 [8] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Haidilao International Holding Ltd, highlighting its current performance, financial outlook, market dynamics, and associated risks.