2020-2022年锂电产业链涨价复盘：历史不会重演，但会押韵

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry has experienced significant price increases from 2020 to 2022, driven by a surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales, with the electrification rate expected to exceed 8% by the end of 2021 [1][2] - The industry is characterized by different price elasticity across various segments, with lithium hexafluorophosphate showing the highest elasticity, while lithium carbonate's price changes are influenced by supply-demand dynamics and longer industry cycles [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The rapid growth in EV demand, particularly from brands like NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Tesla, has led to a doubling of EV sales growth rates since September 2020, with optimistic production guidance for 2021 indicating a 50% growth expectation [2][10] - Material costs have surged, causing battery costs to nearly double, with upstream and midstream companies seeing significant profit increases while battery and vehicle manufacturers face compressed margins [3][22] - The current lithium battery cycle is similar to the previous one (2020-2022) but with a larger industry scale and slower growth rates; demand remains the primary driver, albeit with slightly reduced intensity compared to the last cycle [4][27] Price Trends and Material Performance - Lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte materials have shown the most significant price elasticity, while lithium iron phosphate (LFP) has benefited from rising lithium carbonate prices [5][6] - The battery segment has demonstrated strong performance, with expectations for increased profitability driven by rising demand and supply constraints [6][8] - The price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated significantly, with a rise from approximately 40,000 CNY to over 500,000 CNY per ton during the peak periods [11][14] Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The outlook for 2026 indicates a potential 30% growth in industry demand, with leading companies like CATL expected to exceed 50% production guidance [24][30] - Investment recommendations include leading companies such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and upstream resources like lithium carbonate, as well as midstream materials with high elasticity [9][30] - Current valuations for leading companies are conservative, averaging around 20 times earnings, suggesting potential for upward adjustment as the market stabilizes [29][30] Additional Important Insights - The expansion of production capacity is primarily led by major companies, with a cautious approach to avoid oversupply, and the expectation of sustained profitability as demand continues to grow [8][28] - The supply chain dynamics have shifted, with upstream and midstream companies capturing a larger share of profits, while battery and vehicle manufacturers have seen their profit margins decline [23][26] - The market for separators has improved in 2022, but prices have not significantly increased due to high market share held by leading companies [19]