ASML Holding(US:ASML)2025-12-02 02:08Summary of ASML Holding NV Conference Call Company Overview - Company: ASML Holding NV - Industry: Technology - European Semiconductors - Market Cap: €359,214 million - Current Stock Price: €903.40 (as of November 28, 2025) - Price Target: €1,000.00 - Stock Rating: Overweight Key Points 1. Memory Demand and Foundry Spend - ASML is positioned as a Top Pick due to expected positive momentum in lithography demand, DRAM cycle, and foundry spending, which will support ASML's order book and sales through FY26/27 [2][4][6] - Evidence of tightness in DDR4 and limited visibility in DDR5 inventory suggests near-term upside in memory demand, benefiting ASML's order book [6][7] 2. TSMC's Capacity Build-Out - TSMC is confirmed to be expanding its 3nm capacity in Taiwan, which aligns with ASML's order book and is expected to lead to increased shipments and EUV sales in FY26 [7][6] 3. Chinese Market Dynamics - Contrary to initial fears, the Chinese market is showing resilience. Despite advancements in DUV lithography, Chinese customers face constraints in certain areas, but memory spending from China is on the rise, contributing significantly to DRAM and NAND expenditures [7][6] Additional Insights 1. Valuation Methodology - A recovery-cycle P/E multiple in the high-20s is assumed, with a target price of €1,000 based on a 29x multiple applied to the 2027 EPS estimate of €34 [8] 2. Risks - Upside risks include a meaningful ramp-up in logic/foundry spending, higher than expected HBM/DRAM spending, and expanding servicing margins [10] - Downside risks involve weaker end-market demand, particularly in foundry and DRAM sectors, and potential impacts from inflation and Chinese market weakness [10] 3. Analyst Insights - The US team's trip to Asia reinforced the belief in a memory supercycle and increased foundry spending, supporting ASML's growth outlook [6][2] Conclusion ASML Holding NV is well-positioned to benefit from a memory supercycle and increased foundry spending, particularly with TSMC's capacity expansion and a resilient Chinese market. The company's valuation reflects a positive outlook, although potential risks remain that could impact performance.