Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically oil prices and production forecasts through 2035, with insights from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research [1][3][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - Oil Price Forecasts: Brent and WTI oil prices are expected to decline to $56 and $52 respectively in 2026, but are projected to recover to $80 and $76 by late 2028 [3][19]. - Supply Surplus: A surplus of 2.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) is forecasted for 2026, supported by recent large inventory builds [6][19]. - Key Risks: Russian oil production is identified as a significant risk factor affecting price forecasts for 2026-2027 [9][19]. - Demand Trends: Oil demand is anticipated to rise through 2040, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for the industry [13][19]. - Capital Expenditure (Capex): There is a need for oil prices to rise later in the decade to stimulate capital expenditure, as non-OPEC supply growth, excluding Russia, is expected to slow [19][21]. Additional Important Information - OECD Stock Builds: In a lower production scenario for Russia, a reduced OECD share in global stock builds is assumed for the period from Q4 2025 to 2027 [11][19]. - Non-OPEC Production Growth: The report outlines projections for non-OPEC oil production growth, highlighting contributions from the US, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana [20][19]. - Equity Analysts' Assumptions: Equity analysts at Goldman Sachs assume an $80 Brent oil price from 2025 onwards, which aligns with the broader market expectations [21][19]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and forecasts regarding the oil industry as presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of expected trends and risks.
油价展望（至 2035 年）：2026 年最后一波供应潮将拉低油价，后续回升-Oil Prices Through 2035_ Down in 2026 on Last Supply Wave, Up Later [PRESENTATION]