GoerTek(SZ:002241)2025-12-02 02:08Summary of GoerTek Inc Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - Company: GoerTek Inc (002241.SZ) - Industry: Greater China Technology Hardware - Focus: Analysis of Meta's VR headset shipments and their impact on GoerTek's share price Key Points Meta's VR Headset Shipments - 3Q25 Shipments: 847K units, representing a 54% increase QoQ but a 28% decrease YoY [1] - Market Share: Meta's share increased by 6 percentage points QoQ, reaching 90% [1] - Industry Comparison: Shipments exceeded IDC's estimate of 681K units for the overall industry [8] GoerTek's Share Price Performance - Current Share Price: Rmb30.76 as of December 1, 2025 - Price Target: Rmb16.60, indicating a potential downside of 46% from the current price [5] - 52-Week Range: Rmb40.68 to Rmb17.11 [5] - Market Capitalization: Rmb105,212 million [5] Financial Metrics - Revenue Projections: - FY 2025: Rmb100,300 million - FY 2026: Rmb104,999 million - FY 2027: Rmb113,559 million [5] - EBITDA Projections: - FY 2025: Rmb8,112 million - FY 2026: Rmb8,427 million - FY 2027: Rmb9,231 million [5] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - FY 2025: Rmb1.13 - FY 2026: Rmb1.09 - FY 2027: Rmb1.25 [5] Valuation and Risks - Valuation Methodology: Based on residual income valuation with a cost of equity of 10%, medium-term growth rate of 13%, and terminal growth rate of 5% [9] - Risks to Upside: - Better-than-expected yield ramp-up for AirPods - Share gain within iPhone acoustic business - Higher acoustic pricing [11] - Risks to Downside: - Intensified competition in the acoustic market - Potential share loss in iPhone acoustic business and AirPods assembly supply [11] Analyst Ratings - Stock Rating: Underweight [5] - Industry View: In-Line [5] Additional Insights - The shipment slowdown due to model transitions may continue to limit GoerTek's share price upside in the near term [1] - The analysis indicates a cautious outlook for GoerTek, given the competitive landscape and potential risks associated with its product lines [11]