Seazen(SH:601155)2025-12-04 02:22Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically analyzing trends in home prices and sales dynamics in major cities across the country [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Home Price Decline: - Secondary home prices in major cities fell by 1.7% month-on-month (m-m) in November, marking a 13.3% year-on-year (y-y) decline. This is a faster decline compared to -1.2% in October and -1.3% in September [2][8]. - Over 90% of the tracked cities experienced faster price declines, with tier 1 cities seeing a drop of -1.8% m-m [2][8]. 2. Sales and Listings: - Total listings remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.2% m-m in approximately 50 sample cities. New secondary listings softened by -3% m-m and -9% y-y, with over 65% of cities recording m-m decreases [3][8]. - Visitation to agent shops increased by 1% m-m and 8% y-y, indicating potential market share gains for secondary home sales due to competitive pricing [4][8]. 3. Future Expectations: - The expectation is for further home price declines, with housing policy remaining muted in the coming months. A potential subsidy on mortgage interest may be introduced in late Q2/Q3 2026 if the price decline spreads to tier 2 cities [5][8]. - Sluggish home sales are anticipated to persist into Q1 2026, driven by high inventory levels affecting buyer sentiment [5][8]. 4. Investment Recommendations: - A defensive and selective approach is advised for Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs) due to weak sales impacting earnings and liquidity. Conversely, quality State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are recommended for accumulation, particularly CR Land (1109.HK) and C&D (1908.HK), which are seen as long-term market consolidators with attractive dividend yields [6][8]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that 100% of sample cities recorded m-m decreases in home prices, highlighting a pervasive downturn in the market [15][8]. - The analysis suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a prolonged period of cautious sentiment among home buyers, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the property sector [5][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, emphasizing the ongoing challenges and potential investment strategies.