Rio Tinto(US:RIO)2025-12-04 08:00Strategic Focus - Rio Tinto aims to simplify business operations and sharpen focus on productivity, targeting $650 million in annual run-rate productivity benefits, with $370 million already realized and $280 million expected by Q1 2026[43, 44, 64] - Rio Tinto plans to release $5-10 billion in cash proceeds from its asset base through divestments, monetization, and strategic partnerships [42, 55, 64] - The company is focused on delivering three major growth projects: Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi, and Rincon, with Simandou achieving first ore in November 2025, one year after major construction commenced [42, 49, 50] Production and Growth - Rio Tinto targets a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in copper equivalent production from 2024 to 2030 [25, 64, 71] - The company anticipates a 7% copper equivalent growth in 2025 as Oyu Tolgoi ramps up production [73] - Rio Tinto expects unit costs to decrease at a 4% CAGR from 2024 to 2030 [75] Market Outlook - The company projects significant demand growth across its portfolio, including a ~1.2x increase in steel demand, ~1.1x increase in copper demand, ~3.4x increase in lithium demand, and ~1.3x increase in aluminum demand from 2025F to 2035F [101] - Rio Tinto estimates a supply gap of ~9 million tonnes for copper and ~1.4 million tonnes for lithium by 2035 [101, 113] - The company notes that new iron ore supply is needed to meet sustained demand, with a supply gap of 650-800 million tonnes by 2035 [124] Financial Performance - Rio Tinto anticipates a 40-50% increase in EBITDA with operational excellence and capital discipline [87] - The company aims to keep capital expenditure below $10 billion per year from 2028 onwards [88, 89] - Rio Tinto maintains a shareholder returns policy of 40-60% dividend payout [93] Iron Ore Specifics - Pilbara replacement mines are on track with capital intensity of $21-52/t and internal rate of return of 31-70% [148] - Simandou is on schedule and on budget, with first ore achieved ahead of schedule and sales of 5-10Mt expected in 2026 [155] - Pilbara is experiencing record run rates since cyclone impacts, driving unit cost reduction [159, 162] Aluminium & Lithium Specifics - Rio Tinto is targeting a 5-percentage point ROCE uplift by 2030 for its Aluminium business [193] - The company is increasing lithium capacity by >2.5x by 2028 [215] - Rio Tinto is targeting a capital intensity of $65/kg to reach ~200ktpa of lithium production [218] Copper Specifics - Rio Tinto upgraded its 2025 copper production guidance to 860-875 kt and lowered its 2025 C1 net unit cost guidance to 80-100 c/lb [258] - The company is targeting 1 Mtpa of copper production by 2030 [233] - Oyu Tolgoi is on track for ~500ktpa Cu on average from 2028-2036 [236]