大麦娱乐：IP 拓展是打开中国市场的入口

Summary of Damai Entertainment Holdings Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Damai Entertainment Holdings Ltd - Industry: Greater China Media - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: HK$1.20 - Market Capitalization: US$3.435 billion - Current Share Price: HK$0.90 Key Financial Highlights - F1H26 Total Revenue: Rmb4.0 billion, up 33% year-over-year (YoY) and 11% half-over-half (HoH) [2][10] - GAAP Net Profit: Rmb520 million, exceeding profit alert of >Rmb500 million [2] - IP Revenue Growth: +105% YoY, surpassing forecasts by 2% and 6% [2] - Live Content Business Revenue Growth: +13%, beating forecasts by 1% and consensus by 10% [2] Core Insights - IP Expansion: Damai is positioned as a key gateway for global IPs entering the Chinese market, with a solid multiyear growth outlook [2][4] - Sanrio's Performance: Sanrio's brand demand remains strong in China, ranking second only to Disney, with a purchase interest of 35% and a repurchase rate of 61% [9][14] - Alifish's Diversification: Alifish's reliance on Sanrio is decreasing, with Sanrio expected to contribute about 30% of FY26 IP revenue [9][17] - China's Sub-Licensing Market: The market is under-penetrated but projected to double to Rmb280 billion by 2030, with licensing spending currently at only 0.1% of consumer spending [9][24] Financial Projections - Revenue Forecasts: F2026-27 IP revenue forecasts increased by 5% due to strong growth momentum, while film-related revenue forecasts decreased by 2% [36] - Normalized Net Profit Forecasts: Expected to fall by 11-13% for F2026-28 [37] Valuation Metrics - SOTP Valuation: 15x EV/EBITDA for Damai business and 30x EV/EBITDA for Alifish business [4][40] - Implied P/E: 25x for F2027e, with a PEG ratio of 0.8 [4][40] Market Trends - Consumer Behavior: 83% of consumers plan to expand purchases across various categories, indicating sustained demand for IP products [30] - Growth Drivers: The growth of China's IP derivative market is supported by young consumers seeking uniqueness rather than brand premiums [26] Risks and Considerations - Concentration Risks: While Alifish's revenue concentration on Sanrio is manageable, the company is diversifying its IP portfolio to mitigate risks [19][21] - Market Penetration: The potential for growth in the sub-licensing market is significant, but current spending levels are low compared to global averages [24][34] Conclusion Damai Entertainment Holdings Ltd is well-positioned for growth in the expanding Chinese IP market, supported by strong financial performance and a diversified IP portfolio. The company’s strategic partnerships and market positioning as a gateway for global IPs enhance its investment appeal.